Rise in GDP not expected to sustain over coming months, says NIESR

UK gross domestic product rose by 0.6% in the three months to June 2016, according to The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) on Thursday.

However, NIESR warned this will be followed by a decline in the light of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

Research fellow at NIESR, Jack Meaning, said: “At first glance this represents a robust rate of quarterly growth for the UK economy. However, the quarterly figure masks an important within-quarter pattern.”

GDP also increased 0.6% in the three months to May.

NIESR said its monthly estimates suggest that April saw a large expansion in GDP, which then stagnated in May. The research institute estimates June will face intensifying contraction across the board but is not enough to offset growth achieved in April.

"When April drops out of the three month calculation we should see a quick deterioration of growth, especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates into July and beyond," said Meaning.

NIESR have calculated these results based on data gathered during the pre-referendum period. Given that data is volatile the institute warns against over-interpreting these figures.