UK business expectations tumble on Brexit vote, YouGov/Cebr poll shows

Business confidence in the UK has tumbled in the wake of the vote to leave the European Union, according to research carried out by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

The YouGov/Cebr business confidence index, which gauges businesses’ outlook, stood at 112.6 just ahead of the EU referendum, dropping to 105.0 after the vote.

The survey, which was carried out between 28 June and 1 July, showed the share of businesses that are pessimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months surged to 49% from 25% in the course of a week. Meanwhile, gloominess about businesses’ own outlooks rose 10 percentage points over the same period to 26%.

Scott Corfe, director at the Cebr, said: “So far the only evidence we have for how the economy is in the wake of the Brexit vote comes from the markets which are showing a mixed picture. These figures show what is happening on the ground and they suggest a significant shock reaction.

"Not only are businesses feeling much more pessimistic in general about the state of the economy, but their own expectations for domestic sales, exports and investments over the next 12 months have gone off a cliff. Hopefully this is a short term panic reaction and confidence will edge up again once the dust settles.”

The survey revealed that businesses were also increasingly pessimistic about their operations in the year ahead since the Brexit vote, with hopes for domestic sales, exports and capital investment dropping sharply. The index tracking expectations for domestic sales fell by almost 14 points in a week to 104.9 from 118.8, while hopes for exports dropped 15 points to 99.8 and investment dropped off by almost eight points to 100.1.