UK General Election 2017 - Analysts react

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Sharecast News | 09 Jun, 2017

"Whatever the overall results of this election some of the stats about potential age demographics of the voters is very interesting. Sky did a poll on election day and found amongst 18-34 year olds Labour were on 63% and Conservatives 27%. With 35-54 year olds both were on 43% and over 55 year olds Labour on 23% and Conservatives on 59%. [...] It's fascinating as this shows the dilemma a lot of politicians have around the world. We generally have a wealth divide where the older generation (who normally vote) have a high proportion of it relative to the young who are generally in debt and/or in many countries unemployed. It feels this divide is at the higher end of the historical range." - Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

"Some form of alliance between the Conservatives and DUP looks likely in the short-term,but there is a strong chance of another election in the autumn. The result throws into serious doubt the UK’s chances of successfully negotiating a deal with the EU on Brexit within the Article 50 timetable, raising the chances of both ‘no deal’ and softer Brexit scenarios.Downside for sterling and FTSE 250 is likely to continue until there is a resolution to the political uncertainty. But this result may mean that the “hard Brexit” premium in asset prices starts declining sooner and sterling rallies beyond a short-term drop." - Martin Beck, Oxford Economics

"A formal coalition looks unlikely as partners are going to be hard to find given the Conservative Party's stance on the EU negotiations. So, looking ahead to the Brexit talks, this suggests that the final goals for the talks will remain as leaving the single market and customs union, end the free movement of people, and leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). However, the weakened state of the government could throw this into doubt. Nevertheless, this may all become irrelevant in light of the fact that a minority government is unlikely to last for very long, in our view. Our expectations is that the UK will be facing another general election sooner rather than later, which further complicates the Brexit negotiations."- UBS

"These election results call the Brexit result into question – at the least, this could be seen as a rejection of Mrs May’s hard stance on the upcoming negotiations. Whatever the case, her party’s position in parliament will be a roadblock to getting her own way on what is set to be the most defining event in many years. Greater uncertainty could herald weaker investment, while the impact from a lower sterling could mean weaker consumption; but after considering the risk/reward, we remain long GBP here.," - Nomura

"This leaves the UK in an even weaker negotiating position when it comes to Brexit negotiations which are due to start on the 19th. The risk of a breakdown in the government/new elections is also high. The combination of political uncertainty and Brexit skews the outlook for the GBP to the downside." - Citi

"The next big question is whether or not we have another election. That would again delay the Brexit negotiations, and potentially open the door further to the Labour Party who have the strongest momentum at the moment. There is though one technicality to consider, and that is an argument to try to hold on until October 2018, when constituency boundary changes take effect. These are estimated to bolster the Tory presence by a net 25-30 seats. So the Tories could try to hobble on until then." - Investec

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