US real GDP growth seen at 2% in H2 2016 by Barclays Research

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Sharecast News | 26 Aug, 2016

US real gross domestic product looks good to hit 2% in second-half 2016, says Barclays Research after Friday's rise in second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP).

US Bureau of Economic Analysis said US second-estimate real GDP rose at an annual 1.1%, from a rise of 0.8% in the first three months of the year.

Barclays Research said this print did not change the the backcloth of solid consumption and soft investment, and did little to alter the view of economic activity in the quarter.

"While we continue to anticipate that growth in business fixed investment will remain tepid, we believe the drawdown in inventories is largely complete and look for that category to add modestly to growth in the coming quarters," it said in a research note.

"We maintain our outlook for 2.0% growth in second-half 2016."

Meantime, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis said the rise in real GDP primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports.

These were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending and non-residential fixed investment, the bureau said.

Imports, which were a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased, it noted.

"The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in federal government spending," the bureau said.

"These were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment and
downturns in state and local government spending, in residential fixed investment, and in imports."

Barclays Research added that it did not expect growth in household spending to remain at Q2 levels and saw personal spending slowing to about 2.5% pace in the second half.

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