Air passenger growth forecasts downgraded due to global slowdown

Forecasts for growth in air passenger numbers have been cut due to the softer global economy, especially slower economic growth projections for China.

Nevertheless, passenger numbers are expected to grow by an average 3.4% a year between 2016 and 2034, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), down from is previous forecasts of 4% annual growth.

In 2034, roughly 7bn passengers are expected fly per year, more than double the 3.3bn who took to the skies in 2014 and exactly twice as many as the 3.5bn expected this year.

The five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year will be China, the US, India, Indonesia and Brazil, with seven of the 10 fastest-growing markets in percentage terms flying out of Africa, and much increased prospects for Cuba and Iran.

China was forecast by the IATA to overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market for traffic to, from and within the countries by 2029, while India will displace the UK as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to fifth in the world.

In 2034 China will account for some 1.19bn air passengers, 758m more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%.

Japan, Spain, Germany and France are expected to fall relative to their competitors, Italy falls out of the top 10, while Brazil moves from 10th place to 7th.

Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general, said while demand continued to grow, economic and political events over the last year were hitting some of the fundamentals for growth.

"As a result, we expect some 400m fewer people to be traveling in 2034 than we did at this time last year.

"Air transport is a critical part of the global economy. And policy-makers should take note of its sensitivity. The economic impact of 400 million fewer travelers is significant."