London leisure spend lagging provinces, says Coffer Peach Tracker

Trading at the UK’s largest restaurant food-led pub chains saw an encouraging uplift last month, despite London falling behind its provincial cousins and casual dining outperforming pubs and bars in 'dry January'.

Like-like-sales for January for the 31 companies monitored in the Coffer Peach Tracker were up 1.9%, with total sales including new openings up 5.4%.

The Peach Tracker, which collects sales figures from chains owned by companies including Mitchells & Butlers, Whitbread, Casual Dining Group, The Restaurant Group, Marston’s, Fuller’s, Young's and Greene King's Spirit Pubs, showed a long-term trend of a 1.8% LFL increase for the 12-month period to the end of January 2016 against the previous 12-month period.

But for January alone, LFL sales outside of the M25 up 2.4% on the same month in 2015, while London sales were essentially flat, registering just a 0.4% increase.

“January is a slow trading month, so not too much should be read into these figures, but the sector will be pleased to have started what looks like being a challenging year on a positive note,” said Peter Martin, vice president of CGA Peach, noting a similar pattern the year before.

He added: “Generally, casual dining brands also out-performed pubs and bars, with January like-for-likes up 3.6% nationally and 4.7% outside of London. The capital was a tougher trading environment for all in January.”

CGA Peach produces the Tracker in partnership with Coffer Group, RSM and UBS.

David Coffer said the superiority of sales outside London were no surprise and confirms the trend of expansion away from an ever more expensive London market – in terms of property acquisition, and indeed consumer prices.

"This trend is expected to continue. The very high cost of London living is seeing the boundaries of Greater London extend to the provinces with many now commuting on a daily basis from provincial cities. This trend will also continue and further enhance trade outside of London.”

UBS noted the improving performance of multi-site operators away from London, with the 12-month moving LFL average inside the M25 fell to 1.1% from 1.3% in December, while outside the M25 it rose to 1.3% from 1.2% in December.