Morrisons and Asda hold off gains from discounters - Kantar

Morrisons and Asda were the fastest-growing of the big four supermarkets in recent weeks and managed to hold off the discounters from taking market share, while Sainsbury’s remained a laggard but enjoyed its fastest growth since January.

Overall the grocery market saw total till growth of 3.5% in the 12 weeks to 13 August, of which the four weeks to 12 August showed growth of 2.9%, research by Kantar Worldpanel revealed. A rival report from Nielsen found the past four weeks alone brought industry growth of 4.2%.

Morrisons grew sales 2.7%, according to Kantar, again the fastest-growing of the big four supermarkets as the Bradford-based group cut back on promotions and gained 231,000 new shoppers, 66% of which were more affluent ABC1 customers. Morrisons managed to hold onto its 10.4% market share from a year ago, having regained ground earlier in the summer.

Asda was not far behind at 2.6%. Fraser McKevitt, Kantar's head of retail and consumer insight, said Asda's private label lines grew ahead of brands, with both its standard-tier range and premium ‘Extra Special’ range experienced a sales increase of 8%. Asda's market share fell 0.1 percentage point from last year to 15.2%, but this was up 0.1pp from a month ago

Helped by strong growth from its Express convenience stores, Tesco increased total sales by 1.8%, though the retailer’s market share dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 27.4% from a year ago and 0.2 points from a month ago.

Sainsbury’s rate of growth of 1.2% saw its market share decline 0.4pp to 15.5% over the year and 0.1pp from a month ago. The grocer was boosted by a strong online performance and the growth of its premium ‘Taste the Difference’ range.

Discounters Aldi and Lidl, the main catalysts for the big four's market share declines in recent years, saw continued strong growth.

Aldi growth accelerated to 12.6%, upping its share to 7.6% from 7.0% a year ago and continuing the recent trend of adding 0.1pp every four weeks. "Over half of the retailer’s growth came from the fresh and chilled aisles, with meat, dairy and ready meals performing particularly well," ai McKevitt.

Lidl's sales jumped 8.6% to secure a 5.5% share of the market, having remained at 5.4% since April as premium own-label sales rose by nearly a third, while sales of branded products increased 37%.

Online specialist Ocado, which is becoming more of a technology provider than a grocer, achieved sales growth of 8.5% and increased market share by 0.1pps to 1.2%.

BRANDS, INFLATION & VOLUMES

Overall, McKevitt said consumers’ willingness to spend a little bit extra amid the summer sunshine helped push brands ahead of their own-label counterparts. "At Tesco and Sainsbury’s branded growth has outstripped own-label for a while and – as the two biggest retailers in the grocery market – this has contributed to the market shift. More expensive premium own-label lines across the market are still growing strongly though – up 6.3%."

Grocery inflation stood at 1.9% for the 12 week period to 12 August as prices continued an ascent since January after three-year a period of grocery price deflation. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, butter and canned fish.

Nielsen found that in the past four weeks, sales volume growth at supermarkets improved to +2.9%, up from +2.2% in the previous four weeks. Two thirds of this additional purchasing came from growth in soft drinks and fresh fruit and vegetable sales.

Soft drinks, in particular, saw strong growth during the last four weeks, with value growth up 29% and volume growth up 20%. Fresh fruit and vegetables also saw good growth for the category, with value growth up 4.4% and volume growth up 4.6%.

Nielsen predicted that value and volume growths will remain positive going into the second half of 2018, changing the tune from last year when volumes were in decline.

"The next few weeks will now set the tone for the rest of the year," said Mike Watkins, Nielsen’s UK head of retailer insight. "Shoppers will return from holiday, kids will go back to school, and there will be a return to more usual shopping patterns. We are expecting the momentum to continue with industry growth of around +3% , just ahead of inflation, and volume growths to remain positive."

Analysts at Jefferies said Kantar's four-week data was the second best reading of 2018, with overall industry growth seems healthy, especially in food.

"Sainsbury and Morrisons look to be enjoying healthier levels of growth, but from very different comparable structures. Tesco has slowed a little, and Asda a lot. M&S' momentum appears to be deteriorating."

In Jefferies' view it was more impressive given that it wasn't boosted by the World Cup, nor with the weather nor inflation as much of an incremental positive, which suggests the overall mix/volume backdrop remains relatively healthy.

"Reducing levels of trading down to discounters is likely a contributing factor, also allowing the UK majors to broadly match overall industry growth (given Big 4 sales at +2.6%). Discounters' growth of 11% remains in line with the previous two updates, but given the extent of space added by Aldi and Lidl in recent years (and store openings in the past twelve months), this still suggests ongoing cannibalisation issues," the analysts wrote.

Waitrose was see seen as steadier gains of +3.2% but M&S food "looks soft" at +0.2%, albeit impacted by a very demanding base of comparison.