Grocers don't benefit as shoppers stockpile food for no-deal Brexit

One in ten shoppers claim to have started stockpiling food to prepare for a no deal Brexit, according to the latest industry data, while Sainsbury’s sales continued to fall.

Sainsbury’s sales fell 1.0% in the 12 weeks to 24 February, market share figures from Kantar Worldpanel showed, reducing its market share to 15.7% as the group battles to save it merger with Asda. Asda meanwhile increased sales 1% to bring its share up to 15.5%.

Overall grocery sales volumes rose 1.9% during the 12-week period and 1.2% in the final four weeks.

“Despite one in ten shoppers saying they have started stockpiling groceries and a further 26% reporting that they are considering doing so, this has not been borne out in sales just yet," said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, adding that hard-to-stockpile fresh and chilled foods made up 39% of the value of the average British shopping basket.

Grocery inflation was up 1.4% for the 12 week period, with prices on the up since January 2017, following a near-two-year period of price deflation. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, crisps and vegetables, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and fresh bacon.

Tesco achieved growth of 1.3% but its market share fell by 0.2 percentage points to 27.7%, while Morrisons grew sales 0.8% but its market share dropped slightly to 10.5%.

Ocado, which last month agreed to sell a 50% stake in its UK retail business to Marks & Spencer, saw sales growth of 3.4% to keep its market share at 1.2%.

Waitrose, Ocado's current online delivery partner, reported growth of 1.0%, its strongest performance since August 2018.

McKevitt said: “There is greater overlap between the Waitrose and Ocado customer bases than those of any other grocers – 41% of Ocado shoppers also visited Waitrose in the past 12 weeks. It remains to be seen how many of these are more loyal to the Waitrose product range and how many value the Ocado delivery service specifically – with or without its original partner.”

With Aldi sales growing 10.0% over the 12 weeks, McKevitt said Aldi capitalised on a shift in UK consumer attitudes on Valentine's Day.

“In the past there may have been a bit of a stigma about treating your loved one from a discounter – that just isn’t the case anymore. Planning for the perfect date night, 10% of the population bought chocolate, wine, steak, shellfish or a chilled dessert from Aldi during the week of Valentine’s Day, helping it increase market share by 0.6 percentage points to 7.6%.”