Trainline lifts FY profit outlook after strong first half

Trainline lifted its full-year outlook on Thursday following a strong first half, which was ahead of its expectations.

The company now expects net ticket sales and revenue growth at the top end of their respective guidance ranges. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are expected to exceed the previously stated guidance range.

In May, Trainline had guided to net ticket sales year-on-year growth of between 8% and 12% for FY2025, and revenue growth of 7% to 11%. Adjusted EBITDA was expected to be between 2.4% and 2.5% of net ticket sales.

In an update for the period from 1 March 2024 to the end of August, the company said group net ticket sales rose 14% to just over £3bn, tracking ahead of its FY2025 guidance range. Revenue grew 17% to £229m, also tracking above the guidance range for the year.

UK Consumer net ticket sales rose 15% to £2bn as more people switched to digital tickets, with industry eticket penetration growing to 51% of ticket sales in the first half from 46% in the same period a year. Trainline said it also reflected a reduced impact from strike action versus the prior year.

International Consumer net ticket sales were 6% higher on the same period a year earlier at £583m, with Spain and Italy growing fastest.

Chief executive Jody Ford said: "As Europe's number one rail app, our strong performance shows how our relentless focus on innovation is helping more customers to choose digital ticketing.

"Competition between rail carriers is growing across Europe and as the aggregator of choice we deliver the value and convenience customers want. This is most clearly demonstrated in Spain, where we have tripled net ticket sales in the last two years, with over one million customers transacting in the last 12 months alone."

At 0950 BST, the shares were up 10.5% at 331.80p.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Double-digit gains in net ticket sales and group revenue point to a fantastic first-half period for Trainline.

"Acting as a big tailwind is a structural shift in the UK for people to use digital tickets rather than paper ones. As more people become accustomed to scanning their phone to get through station barriers, the bigger the opportunity for Trainline to position itself as the go-to place for buying these types of tickets.

"A second tailwind is increased carrier competition in mainland Europe, primarily in Spain and Italy. Trainline has been able to position itself as an easy way to navigate the increasingly complex travel system and get good deals.

"Investment a few years ago in raising awareness of its brand in Spain is now paying off, having tripled net ticket sales in the last two years in that country.

"Trainline has been getting into the habit of delivering good news over the past year. This momentum, together with increased earnings expectations, has helped to breath some life back into its share price after Covid delayed the company’s growth plans. It now looks firmly back on track."