Referendum result all but a foregone conclusion, say analysts

A number of City analysts were quick to post comments after polls closed in the EU referendum on Thursday night, with all pointing to market sentiment and late opinion polls as suggesting a Remain outcome.

IG senior market analyst Chris Beauchamp said for the markets, the result looked to be already all but a foregone conclusion, with sterling still higher in overnight markets and FTSE futures pointing towards more gains.

“While the race has appeared neck and neck, financial markets have consistently expected the Remain campaign, the status quo option, to emerge victorious.

“With the pound still gaining ground against the euro and having seen a fresh highs against the US dollar for the year, and with the FTSE 100 having bounced impressively in the past few weeks, we would be in for a remarkable night, and an even more remarkable few weeks ahead, should the Leave campaign win through in the end.”

Beauchamp said that, while polls have been tight towards the end, the IG binary market has always strongly favoured the Remain campaign, with it never dipping below a 58% chance of a Remain vote.

Chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macro, Claus Vistesen, said in his Eurozone Monitor that as he hit deadline at 2210 BST it appeared that the UK population had decided to stay in the EU.

“A YouGov poll conducted just after the vote closed shows that Remain likely edged it by 52% against 48% for Brexit.

“In their relief over the likely decision by the UK to stay in the EU, investors likely had little time to focus on yesterday’s downbeat economic survey data in the euro area. The composite index fell to a 15-month low of 52.8 in June, from 53.1 in May, indicating that GDP growth will slow in Q2.”

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, echoed Nigel Farage’s earlier comments that Remain had “edged it,” adding that “it would appear that the fat lady is in the act of clearing her throat and readying herself to sing".

“Just prior to polls closing late money bets on the betting markets saw stock market futures and sterling surge higher with GBP/USD hitting 1.4990 before slipping back to 1.4900.

“The big question now is not only whether the final poll is right but also whether this is a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact.”