Monday newspaper round-up: Brexit, defence, FCFM, House of Fraser

Britain faces a Japanese-style future of permanently weak economic growth if immigration drops steeply in the years after Brexit, as forecasts indicate the working age population could start to shrink in just nine years’ time. As a result the economy would stagnate, investment would slow as businesses see their customer base fall, and Government finances would be put ­under immense strain as larger numbers of pensioners would have to be supported by fewer workers. - Telegraph

Downing Street has insisted that Theresa May is confident of securing a Brexit deal with Brussels despite Liam Fox’s assertion that the UK appears set to crash out of the EU without reaching an agreement. Whitehall sources said they believed there was only a very small chance of the government failing to secure a deal, but that preparations were being stepped up in what they described as the unlikely event of that taking place. - Guardian

Confidence among British business leaders has declined significantly and remains low, according to two reports that suggest the lack of progress over Brexit continues to cast a shadow over the UK economy. A poll of FTSE 350 businesses by ICSA: the Governance Institute found that 55% of UK company board members are predicting a decline in their business over the coming year, down from 24% six months ago. - Guardian

The services sector contracted for the first time in eight years last month amid growing fears about a possible no-deal exit from the European Union. The BDO Output Index recorded a drop of more than two points in services output in July, pushing the survey into negative territory for the first time since early 2010. - The Times

Brussels will break its own laws if it refuses to compromise on Brexit, ministers have warned their European counterparts. The EU “keeps stalling” and bringing the prospect of no deal ever closer, they say, even though the Lisbon Treaty requires it to do everything it can to find a workable arrangement with Britain. - Telegraph

Women will have to give up work to look after their ageing parents and grandparents unless EU care workers are given priority after Brexit, ministers have warned. The Department of Health said that in a "worst case scenario" if EU migrants are barred from coming to the UK there will be a shortfall of 6,000 doctors, 12,000 nurses and 28,000 care staff within five years. - Telegraph

The government is set to boost defence spending by about £800 million this year but has ruled out a new multi-year settlement, The Times understands. Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, began a review of defence capabilities in January and is fighting behind the scenes for more cash for his department.

City tycoon Michael Spencer has quietly become chairman of investment firm FCFM after snapping up more than 90pc of the group’s shares. Sources told The Daily Telegraph that the former Conservative Party treasurer, who is selling his business Nex to US exchange giant CME for £3.9bn, has replaced ex-Numis boss Oliver Hemsley as chairman after buying a controlling stake in the Knightsbridge-based business for a valuation of £57m.

Rupert Murdoch must table a new £26bn-plus offer for Sky this week or see rival Comcast become the new owner of Europe’s biggest pay-TV broadcaster. Under UK takeover rules, Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox has until the end of Thursday to table a new bid to take control of the 61% of Sky he does not already own. - Guardian

Landlords have dropped a legal challenge against House of Fraser’s plan to possibly close more than half its stores, making it easier for the embattled department store to broker a rescue deal. The case, which was due to be heard in Edinburgh’s court of session next week, was settled over the weekend. The terms of the agreement are not being made public but are thought to include financial compensation. - Guardian

The government could be paying Amazon more for web services than the technology giant pays in tax, figures suggest. Public sector bodies spent £11.8 million of taxpayers’ money with Amazon Web Services in the first three months of this year, suggesting an annual spend of almost £50 million. - The Times

Scientists are calling for a temporary ban on oil drilling in Surrey after 12 earthquakes in four months. Four senior geologists say that there are risks to health and the environment from unstable geology that had not been identified when permission was granted for several oil exploration sites, including two a few miles from the earthquake epicentres. - The Times

Canadian craft beer makers are facing an aluminium drought amid Donald Trump’s trade war. Small brewers are struggling to source cans amid increased demand for the metal and supply chain disruption. In the wake of the tariffs being confirmed, large soft drink makers stocked up on the metal, leading to the current supply shortage, leaving small independent companies in trouble. - Telegraph

Applications to build an additional 35,000 homes on green belt land were submitted last year, taking the total number proposed for construction on protected land to a record 460,000. New data from the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) released on Monday showed that more than 24,000 homes were constructed in the UK’s green belts in the past nine years. - Guardian

The Big Four auditors have been prioritising their profits ahead of making the best professional judgments, one of the City’s most influential investors has claimed. Standard Life Aberdeen, which controls £655 billion of assets, has held a series of meetings with the boards of companies in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices to try to convince them to consider appointing a player outside of the Big Four. - The Times

Investec is facing a fifth consecutive year of investor revolt after shareholders were urged to oust the chairman for her “troubling” response to City anger. Influential advisory group Glass Lewis told investors to rebel against Zarina Bassa’s re-election at Wednesday’s annual general meeting over a failure to quell dissent sparked by “excessive” boardroom pay. - Telegraph

The general manager of an offshore company connected with Beaufort Securities has pleaded guilty in the United States to a money-laundering conspiracy and a second defendant has been extradited from Hungary as the net appears to be tightening five months after the collapse of the City stockbroker. Arvinsingh “Vinesh” Canaye, a Mauritian citizen who ran Beaufort Management from the Indian Ocean island, was one of six individual defendants named in a US indictment issued in March hours after Beaufort Securities had been shut down by the City regulator over fears that it was insolvent. - The Times

Virgin has been awarded almost £2bn worth of NHS contracts over the past five years as Richard Branson’s company has quietly become one of the UK’s leading healthcare providers, Guardian analysis has found. In one year alone, the company’s health arm, Virgin Care, won deals potentially worth £1bn to provide services around England, making it the biggest winner among private companies bidding for NHS work over the period. - Guardian

The UK economy could benefit from more people of all ages attending university, a report has concluded. It also suggests the advance of automation, robotics, artificial intelligence and digital technology, as well as the challenges of Brexit and an ageing population are creating greater demand for those with qualifications above level 4. - Guardian