Citi sees real possibility of 'super-cycle' in aluminium and copper

Analysts at Citi revised their price forecasts for copper higher, going as far as to tell clients that prospects for a so-called 'super-cycle' in copper and aluminium prices were "real".

The same however was not true of the wider commodities complex, they judged, and in the specific case of energy, they were only expecting a cyclical bull phase in 2021.

The analysts now saw the industrial metal fetching $10,000 per metric tonne "sooner rather than later".

They raised their point-price forecast for the next zero to three months to $9,000 per tonne and to $10,000 per tonne six-12 months out.

Key to their forecasts was the deep deficit in supply that their models were now pointing to for 2021 with low inventories expected to persist for years to come.

The global copper market was now entering the second phase of a bull market, characterised by backwardation in the futures price curve, as a sooner-than-expected jump in synchronous growth worldwide pushes results in supply deficits.

"Prospects for a super-cycle in copper and aluminium are real.

"However, we do not subscribe to the view that there will be a broader commodity super-cycle, with energy only expected to be cyclically bullish this year."