Friday newspaper share tips: Cobham, Carillion

An earnings miss in volatile market conditions is a sure recipe to send your stock price tanking.

On 5 November, aerospace and defence engineering group Cobham told shareholders they could expect full-year earnings per share of between 20.1p and 21.7p.

In the event, the company delivered 19.5p, sending its shares duly lower by 19.75p to 239.75p, with profits weighed down by further weakness in several markets and a “small technical overshoot” because of a couple of disposals, The Times’s Tempus said.

A drop in shipping weighed on the marine side of the business and there are less flights around Australia because of low commodity prices.

Slowing orders also dragged on cash-flow and sales are expected to be “flattish”, scant improvement on the 1% drop in organic revenues seen in 2015.

Non-recurring provisions also flattered the bottom line, with profits before tax up by 9% to £280m.

Lost orders from telecoms providers will come through but the commercial side is set to remain weak.

On the upside, geopolitical concerns should feed strong demand for its missile control systems.

At 13 times earnings the valuation on the stock seems “fair”, Tempus said.

Carillion has the dubious distinction of being the most shorted stock on the London market, with many US hedge funds betting the company is too strapped for cash to meet its day-to-day needs and lacks funds to initiate new service contracts.

They are hoping for a replay of the collapse in Balfour Beatty, Tempus explained.

Nevertheless, the company’s Middle East construction business is stable despite the downturn in oil and at 5.8% margins in the support services division are “satisfactory enough”.

The workload, both in hand and in future is strong too, the tipster told readers.

There was also a pick-up in the second half following the general election induced hiccup.

It also offers among the highest dividend yields in the sector, now at 6.6%, and the pay-out is well covered.

Markets anticipate a bounce in 2017 as new work comes through.

“Unless you believe that disaster is looming on the balance sheet, the yield means that you are being paid to await that upturn.”

“Buy long-term”, Tempus recommended.