Sunday share tips: BHP Billiton, Card Factory, Santa Rally stock-picks

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Sharecast News | 01 Nov, 2015

Updated : 14:36

Sell shares in BHP Billiton, said the Sunday Times’ Inside the City column. A recent $6.5bn fundraising was arranged as a ‘hybrid’ issue as the company seeks to protect its A+ rating. The mining giant said it will use the cash for working capital and to pay down debt, but some view it as a means of preparing the company for a long winter of cheap commodities. However, prices have fallen even further since the money was raised and BHP’s dividend still looks in danger.

Analysts at Liberum forecast the miner will generate only 48p of earnings for 2016, well shy of maintaining its 124p dividend and a total $4.5bn shortfall. A major bounce in iron ore and copper could change things, but with China lowering its growth forecasts and rival miners about to flood several of its markets, price recoveries don’t look likely.

Buy shares in Senior, Imperial Tobacco, British American Tobacco and Unilever as part of the ‘Santa Claus rally’ effect, said Questor in the Sunday Telegraph. While the recent strength of the stock market may rule out the full effect this year, the FTSE 100 has a strong historical record in December, averaging a 2.5% rise, while the second half of December has an even stronger record, as traders get into position for the new year and fund managers use up spare cash.

Zero-in on the best chance of benefitting by stock-picking companies that have previously delivered strong share prices during the festive season. One example is Senior, the aerospace and land vehicles components maker, which has seen its shares tumble more than a quarter this year on its slower sales growth. It has a trading update on 19 November and the shares have a strong December record. Others with a smoking hot history in the month are Imperial Tobacco and British American Tobacco, while Unilever could also benefit.

Card Factory shares are worth buying, said Midas in the Mail on Sunday. The collapse of the greetings card market in the face of e-cards never materialised, with the UK spending a pretty solid £1.4bn a year on birthday, new-baby, sorry-you’re-leaving and other cards, allowing Card Factory to keep lifting like-for-like sales every one of its 17 years since its foundation and to continue to open around 50 stores a year for the foreseeable future.

The company is able to keep costs flat as, unlike most retail rivals, it designs and prints virtually all its own cards from its headquarters in Yorkshire, and sees plenty of other savings in coming years from extracting economies of scale from suppliers and landlords, which will help it mitigate the increasing staff costs from the government's new 'living wage'. Since flotation in 2014, management has committed to returning cash to shareholders via regular and special dividends, with the cash generative nature of the business resulting in frequent special dividends on top of the regular ones.

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