Trump win hits dollar and probability of Fed's December rate hike

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Sharecast News | 09 Nov, 2016

Updated : 11:46

US President-elect Donald Trump's election triumph has sent the US dollar down on several key crosses as the price of gold flew higher, at the same time lowering the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

The result -- thought unlikely in multiple mainstream polls -- saw the Trump's Republicans not only grab the presidency, but also ascendancy in the US Senate and US House.

Just before 1100 GMT, sterling was up 0.32% to $1.2418, while the greenback tapered 0.64% to €1.3035. The dollar-spot index was down 0.47% to $97.405.

The dollar was lower versus the safe-haven units of Japan and Switzerland -- falling 2.02% to 103.04 yen and falling 0.46% to 0.9734 Swiss francs.

However, it made gains against the commodity currencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said global markets were remarkably calm as the distinctively-barneted Trump outclassed Democrat presidential wannabe Hillary Clinton at the ballot box.

He said the softer dollar was pushing up commodity prices. At about 11:07 GMT, gold was up 2.38% to 1304.8 an ounce, helped also by its perceived defensive characteristics in times of market volatility.

"Much of the action now will be centred on the US dollar, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve, and indeed chair Janet Yellen," said Beauchamp in a statement.

"A continued fall in the greenback could yet do for Wall Street what the post-Brexit nosedive in sterling did for the FTSE 100. A good period in November and December is still eminently possible."

Meantime, Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, inked the US unit as a casualty of the Trump win, at least so far.

"Markets have slashed forecasts of a US interest rate in December, the chances of which have now been pegged back to fifty-fifty," he opined. The probability was previously eighty-twenty, Hargreaves Lansdown said.

Monex Europe commented that Trump's policy platform and campaign statement seemed to contain plenty of fodder for dollar weakness.

"But for now, a reasonably conciliatory victory speech for Trump seems to have triggered a rally that has left dollar only mildly weaker than this morning’s open against many pairs.

"The future is far from certain, and all eyes will be on the President-elect as he begins to signal the direction of policy."

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