'Sell the rip' if US August payrolls print below 100,000, BoA's Hartnett says
A hard landing in the US is still most likely on the cards, a top-rated Bank of America strategist said.
In a research note sent to clients, Michael Hartnett said that he was still in the camp of arguing that a so-called "hard landing" was underpriced.
He was writing ahead of the release of the August US non-farm payrolls report.
"Sell 1st rate cut", the veteran banker told clients.
"Buy-the-dip in Bonds, Bullion, Breadth (via defensives)," he added.
Should the August non-farm payrolls print below 100,000, then his recommendation was to "sell the rip".
Such a number would equate to a hard landing and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its 17-18 September meeting, push the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note to 3%, oil to $60 a barrel, the Japanese yen to 135 against the Greenback and the SOX index to 4,000.
However, if payrolls came in between 150-175,000, together with an increase in average hourly earnings of less than 0.1%, then that would equate to a soft landing, with tech/energy leading a September comeback versus defensives - particularly if the Fed still opted to cut rates by 50bp.