Friday preview: All eyes on non-farm payrolls report, Wetherspoons results

AJ Bell said JD Wetherspoon’s shares are broadly flat over the year, even though the pub group, with an estate of around 800 sites, is expected to report record sales in the year to July 2024.

"The issue is therefore presumably one of profit, where increased wages, utility bills and interest costs on the company’s £670 million net debt position are all having an impact," said Dan Coatsworth and Russ Mould.

"July’s trading statement saw chair Tim Martin note that full-year results would be in line with expectations, where analysts are currently looking for sales of just over £2 billion and pre-tax income of £72 million, compared to £1.9 billion and £43 million a year ago.

"As such, more attention may focus on any comment on like-for-like sales in the early stages of the new financial year, compared to the 7.7% run rate in fiscal 2024 (up to 7 July). Investors will look for commentary on the mix between price and volumes and also between bar takings and food. At the first-half stage, bar sales were up 11.6% year-on-year, compared to a 7.6% increase in food, 10.5% in gaming machines and 2.8% in hotels and rooms."

They also said that investors may look to Martin and the board for "any thoughts on the possible implications of the government’s proposed ban on smoking in public outdoor places, including pub gardens and outdoor tables, which could be the latest challenge to sales of drinks in particular".

On the US macro front, the non-farm payrolls report for September is due at 1330 BST, along with the unemployment rate and average earnings.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said this week’s NFP report could determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points or 25 bps when it next meets in November.

The market is expecting payrolls to grow by 146,000 for September, up a touch from the 140,000 jump in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% for September and average hourly earnings are also expected to be steady, at 3.8% year-on-year.

"Thus, we may not get a definitive answer from this week’s labour market report," said Brooks.

Friday October 04

FINALS

Wetherspoon (J.D.)

QUARTERLY DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Land Securities

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Personal Assets Trust, Greggs, ConvaTec, GlobalData, Serco, IWG, Goodwin, Just Group, Dewlaps, Glanbia, Admiral, Team Internet, H&T Group, Pembroke Vct, Dunedin Enterprise Investment Trust, Irish Cont, Warehouse Reit, Uniphar, Sherborne Inv C, Cairns Homestead, Dalata Hotel Group, Elecosoft, Property Franchise Group, Triple Point Social Housing REIT, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Foresight, Smith (DS), Migo Opp Trust, Walker Crips, Nic, PHSC

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Admiral, Triple Point Social Housing REIT

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Construction (0930)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Producer Price Index (GER) (1000)

Producer Price Index (EU) (1000)

Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (1330)

Unemployment Rate (US) (1330)