US jobless claims fall less than expected
First-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States slipped slightly last week but came in above expectations and remained close to their highest since last summer.
Initial jobless claims fell to 238,000 in the week to 14 June, from a revised 243,000 the week before, and slightly above the 235,000 consensus forecast.
This was the second-highest reading since August 2023.
Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that jobless claims tend to be volatile this time of year "because of seasonal adjustment issues around holidays and the timing of the end-of-school years".
Nevertheless, the four-week moving average – which smoothes out week-to-week volatility – increased by 5,500 to 232,750.
Sweet said the downside risks to the labour market should be on the Federal Reserve's radar, if they aren't already, with the job openings rate declining noticeably.
"The risk of labor demand being too weak to prevent the unemployment rate from rising could give some support in cutting interest rates as an imbalance in the labor market is unlikely to be a significant factor in future inflation. The central bank can’t wait until cracks in the labor market form, or they’ll be behind the curve," Sweet said.