Greggs 2024 sales top £2bn but Q4 LFL sales growth slows

For the year, total sales rose 11.3% to £2.01bn, with company managed shop LFL sales up 5.5%.

In the fourth quarter, total sales were up 7.7% while company managed shop LFL sales growth slowed to 2.5%. Greggs said this reflected "the more subdued high street footfall".

"Trading performance reflected a well-publicised more challenging market backdrop in the second half of 2024," it said.

The chain opened a record 226 new shops in the year, with 28 closures and 53 relocations resulting in 145 net new shop openings, in line with its target.

Greggs said the full-year outcome was set to be in line with the board's previous expectations.

Chief executive Roisin Currie said 2024 was "another year of good progress".

"We enter 2025 with a strong pipeline of new shop opportunities, and we continue to broaden our menu and enhance our digital capabilities, whilst also developing our supply chain capacity to deliver our growth strategy," she said.

"Whilst lower consumer confidence continues to impact High Street footfall and expenditure, our value-for-money offer and the quality of our freshly-prepared food and drink position us well to meet the headwinds we expect to see in the year ahead, and we remain confident in the significant long-term opportunity for growth."

At 1530 GMT, the shares were down 15% at 2,246p.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Amid weaker footfall in general across the UK high street in the last quarter of 2024, it’s no wonder that Greggs’ sales growth has slowed down. People are watching every penny and popping in for a coffee and a savoury or sweet snack is now starting to feel like a luxury rather than a transaction that requires no thought.

"Public outrage over Greggs adding another 5p to the price of a sausage roll to £1.30 shows how sensitive consumers are to price hikes. The cost of food has kept going up and we’re reaching a tipping point where people are saying enough is enough, and they’re cutting back on non-essentials.

"Greggs’ sausage rolls now cost 30% more than in 2022 when you could get one for £1. Some people will stomach the higher price, but others will buy less often or not at all, which means Greggs needs to come up with a new game plan. After all, it continues to open new stores and costs are mounting up.

"Greggs is good at product innovation and it will be interesting to see if it launches a ‘cheap treat’ item where it can bank on high sales volumes to keep the tills ringing non-stop.

"Over the past year, analysts have regularly nudged down their 2025 earnings forecasts for Greggs and this trend remains intact following the disappointing post-Christmas update with a further reduction in estimates.

"The broader retail sector is going through a difficult period and it could get worse, which means investors may no longer be prepared to pay premium share ratings for companies in the sector. That’s problematic for Greggs because its shares have typically been more expensive than its peers due to its track record of success."