Weekly review
The FTSE 100 ended the week down 26.98 points, or 0.33%, closing at 8,253.65 on Friday.
Equity view
Housebuilder Bellway is appointing the former chief financial officer of competitor Cairn Homes as its new CFO, the company announced on Friday. Shane Doherty, a chartered accountant who left Cairn after four years in April, is said to have "significant experience" in the housebuilding sector.
Fashion retailer Quiz said on Friday that chief financial officer Gerard Sweeney is planning to step down after more than eight years with the group. Sweeney will remain with the company until the end of March 2025 to enable a smooth transition of responsibilities to his successor. Quiz said the recruitment process to find his successor has begun and it will share an update "in due course".
Recruitment firm Hays says it expects earnings to be sequentially lower in the first half as a result of ongoing challenging market conditions, which resulted in a big drop in fees in the first quarter. Net fees declined by 14% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in the three months to 30 September, with a 10% drop in temporary and contracting fees (which account for 61% of group fees) met with a 20% plunge in the permanent category.
BP followed sector rival Shell and said it expected a fall in third-quarter refining margins would hit operating profit by $400 – 600m and also warned its oil trading result would be weak as it felt the impact of lower crude prices. Upstream production in the third quarter was now expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior three months, with output broadly flat in oil, gas & low carbon energy, the company said in a trading statement on Friday.
Canadian investment firm Brookfield has trumped Segro’s effort to buy warehouse owner Tritax EuroBox with an agreed £557m offer. Brookfield is offering 69p a share, a 6% uplift on Segro’s offer of 65.1p. Including debt, the deal is worth £1.1bn Brookfield said on Wednesday.
Auction Technology Group said it expects full-year revenues to be slightly shy of earlier guidance as it announced the resignation of its chief financial officer. In a trading update for the financial year ended 30 September, the online auction marketplace operator said annual revenues would likely rise 5% to $174m.
London real estate developer Great Portland Estates reaffirmed annual rental value guidance after a strong three months to the end of September, adding that an improving economy, falling interest rates and scarcity of supply would drive growth. The company said it had delivered £6.1m of new lettings, bringing the total for the financial year to date to £10.5m, 7% ahead of the estimated rental value (ERV), "with our fully managed spaces outperforming once more".
Paper and packaging giant Mondi has announced the acquisition of the Western European corrugated converting and solid board assets of Schumacher Packaging. The Weybridge-based manufacturer said the deal will expand its corrugated footprint in key markets and add complementary fibre-based products focused on ecommerce and FMCG to enhance its existing offering.
Life science investor Syncona said its portfolio company Purespring Therapeutics, which focuses on gene therapies for kidney diseases, had raised £80m in an oversubscribed financing. Syncona has committed £19.9m as part of a syndicate, led by Sofinnova, in collaboration with Gilde Healthcare, Forbion, and British Patient Capital, the company said on Wednesday.
Pub group Marston’s said on Wednesday that full-year like-for-like sales outperformed the market and that it had significantly reduced debt. In an update for the 52 weeks to 28 September, the company said total retail sales in the managed and franchised pubs rose 5.8% on the prior year, with LFL sales up 4.8%, outperforming the broader market.
CMC Markets reported a strong first half in an update on Wednesday, driven by its diversification strategy and growing institutional business. The FTSE 250 company said that for the six months ended 30 September, it expected net operating income to rise 45% to £180m, compared to £123m in the same period last year.
Convenience food producer Greencore lifted full-year profit guidance again after a strong fourth quarter performance. The company, which makes sandwiches, soups and ready meals, on Tuesday said it expected adjusted operating profit of £95m-97m for the 12 months to September 27, up from a prior range of £88m-90m in July, which itself was an increase on the second quarter. Like-for-like revenue growth in the final three months was up 3.7% and 3.4% for the year.
Imperial Brands has beefed up its shareholder returns programme by £400m after confirming it finished the fiscal year with in-line results, with growth in both tobacco and next generation products (NGP). Group adjusted operating profit growth over the 12 months to 30 September was "close to the middle" of the mid-single digit range guidance, the company said.
Student accommodation developer Unite delivered a strong lettings performance in the third quarter, with occupancy levels already close to the full-year target. In a trading update for the three months to 30 September, Unite said occupancy across the portfolio is 97.5% for the 2024/25 academic year, just short of the 98-99% full-year target.
UK telecoms giant Vodafone and Google on Tuesday said they had extended their partnership in a 10-year deal they claimed would be worth more than $1bn. The tie up will see Google’s new generative artificial intelligence powered devices to Vodafone customers across Europe and Africa. No financial specifics were provided.
Rio Tinto confirmed speculation on Monday morning that it has approached Philadelphia-based lithium chemicals producer Arcadium Lithium regarding a possible takeover. "The approach is non-binding and there is no certainty that any transaction will be agreed to or will proceed," Rio Tinto said.
Mitie Group said it had bought Spanish security business Grupo Visegurity for up to €11m (£9.2m), made up of an initial €9m payment and performance-linked deferred payments of up to €2m over the next two years. Based in Barcelona, Visegurity provides manned guarding, alarm response and access control, alongside concierge, patrol and security systems services, Mitie said on Monday.
Grainger, the UK’s largest listed provider of private rental homes, flagged a robust full-year performance in an update on Monday, supported by portfolio expansion and strong rental growth. The FTSE 250 company said it added 1,113 new homes to its portfolio during the 12 months ended 30 September, including the completion of four build-to-rent schemes and the acquisition of a stabilised asset in Manchester.
Ukraine-focused iron ore pellet producer Ferrexpo reported a drop in production and continued pressure on margins in the third quarter, as the ongoing war continues to impact operations and the bottom line. Commercial production totalled 1.40m tonnes in the three months to 30 September, down 16.4% on the year before, with the company operating one to two pelletising lines out of four during the period.
Shell released its third-quarter 2024 outlook on Monday, reporting that in the integrated gas segment, it expected production to range between 920,000 and 960,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with LNG liquefaction volumes between 7.3 million and 7.7 million tonnes. The FTSE 100 oil giant said the segment’s operating expenses were projected to be between $1.1bn and $1.3bn, while adjusted earnings were expected to see pre-tax depreciation of $1.2bn to $1.6bn.
Economic news
The UK’s trade deficit widened in August, official data showed on Friday, after a jump in imports outstripped the rise in exports. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK's total goods and services trade balance excluding precious metals increased by £3bn to £10bn in the three months to August. Within that, the trade in goods deficit widened by £2.6bn to £52.4bn, while the trade in services surplus was estimated to have narrowed by £0.4bn to £42.4bn.
The UK economy returned to growth in August, according to figures released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics. GDP rose 0.2% following no growth in June and July, in line with economists’ expectations. Services output grew 0.1% in August following an increase of 0.1% in July, while production output rose 0.5% following a revised 0.7% decline the month before. Output in construction was up 0.4% in August following a 0.4% drop In July.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has fined TSB Bank £10.9m for failing to ensure fair treatment of customers in financial difficulty. According to the City watchdog, between June 2014 and March 2020, TSB's inadequate systems and controls created significant risks for customers in arrears, potentially leading to unaffordable repayment plans and inappropriate fees, particularly for vulnerable people.
House prices have risen across the UK for the first time in two years, a closely-watched survey showed on Thursday, as the market was buoyed by lower interest rates. According to the latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, the house prices net balance reached 16 on a national basis in September. The first positive result since October 2022, it was also a notable improvement on August’s downwardly-revised 0. A net balance is the proportion of respondents reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Ofwat called on the water sector to significantly improve its performance on Tuesday, after companies fell short of key environmental and service targets, costing the industry £157.6m in penalties this year. The water regulator's annual report highlighted poor progress in pollution reduction, with companies achieving only a 2% reduction in incidents against a target of 30%. That followed a 2023 increase in pollution incidents for nine out of 11 companies.
UK house prices rose in September for the third month in a row and were close to record highs amid cheaper mortgage rates, according to figures released on Monday by Halifax. Prices rose 0.3% on the month, matching the increase seen in August. On the year, meanwhile, house prices were up 4.7% in September following a 4.3% jump the month before. This was still the strongest rate since November 2022. The average price of a home stood at £293,399 - just shy of the record high of £293,507 set in June 2022 - versus £292,540 in August.
International events
German inflation fell to 1.6% in September, according to the Federal Statistical Office, down from August's 1.9% print and in line with preliminary expectations. September's slowdown was principally due to a renewed decline in prices of goods, with a sharp decline in energy costs more than offsetting a slight increase in food prices. At the same time, services inflation ticked 0.1% lower to 3.8%, while excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core inflation rate eased to 2.7% from 2.8% for the lowest reading since January 2022.
French pharma giant Sanofi has announced it is in discussions with US private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice regarding the potential sale of half of its consumer healthcare business. According to a company announcement on Friday, the current discussions centre around a 50% controlling stake in Opella. Sanofi didn't disclose any financial details regarding the talks, but Bloomberg cited sources suggesting a deal could value the division at €15bn.
The US consumer price index rose by more than expected in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer prices climbed by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in September, more than the 0.1% increase expected by economists, while the closely watched "core" price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also came in hotter than the 3.2% expected by analysts at 3.3%. The CPI inflation measure, on the other hand, cooled slightly to 2.4% on an overall basis last month, down from 2.5% in August but short of expectations for a reading of 2.3%.
Americans lined up for unemployment benefits at an accelerated pace in the week ended 5 October, according to the Labor Department. Initial jobless claims rose by 33,000 to 258,000, significantly exceeding market expectations for a reading of 230,000 with a fresh 14-month high, adding weight to arguments that the Federal Reserve Bank will likely announce interest rate cuts in each of its remaining meetings in 2024. Continuing claims increased by 42,000, while the four-week moving average, which aims to strip out week-to-week volatility, grew by 6,750 to 231,000.
Shares in takeaway pizza chain Domino's rose on Thursday as investors focused on forecast-beating quarterly earnings and shrugged off a reduction to sales growth forecasts for the full year. Domino's said retail sales totalled $4.39bn for the third quarter, up from $4.22bn a year earlier, with both US and international store sales rising 5.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The Michigan-based company, which had more than 21,000 owned and franchised stores by the end of the period, reported revenues of $1.08bn when accounting for owned stores as well as franchise royalties and fees. That was also up 5.1% on last year though just shy of the $1.10bn consensus forecast.
Retail sales in Germany rose over the past two months, according to delayed data from the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. Sales volumes increased by 1.6% during the month, following a 1.5% gain in July and a 1.1% decline in June, Destatis said. This marked the highest rate since March when sales grew 2.6%. Destatis released figures for the past three months in one go on Thursday after suspending a number of key economic indicators in May due to a failed data update at the Wiesbaden-based authority.
Germany’s economy is set to contract by 0.2% in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of shrinking output, according to a statement from the country’s economy ministry on Wednesday. The forecast made Germany the only member of the G7 group of industrialised nations projected to experience economic contraction in both 2023 and 2024, according to Reuters. The ministry previously predicted modest growth of 0.3% for the year, but a failure to recover in the second half led to its downward revision.
US mortgage applications fell by 5.1% in the week ended 4 October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, extending the prior week's 1.3% drop in taking a bite out of the almost 30% surge in demand throughout September. Applications to refinance a mortgage sank by 9% but were still double what they were at the same time a year ago, while applications to purchase a home were broadly unchanged week-on-week. The drop in applications came alongside a rebound in benchmark mortgage rates, as the yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury note moved past 4% and strong labour data led many to believe that the Federal Reserve will likely be less dovish moving forward.
Germany's trade surplus jumped by more than forecast in August as exports unexpectedly grew, according to figures from the Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday. Exports were 1.3% higher than the previous month at €131.9bn, slowing slightly from the 1.7% growth seen in July, but ahead of the 1.0% decline expected by economists. Some €72.7bn of the goods exported were sent to EU countries in August, up 0.8% on July, while non-EU exports increased 1.9% to €59.2bn.
The National Federation of Independent Business' September optimism index increased to 91.5 in September, missing forecasts for a print of 91.7 and marking the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The uncertainty index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading on record, while 51% of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. Meanwhile, the number of business owners reporting inventory gains fell by four points to a seasonally adjusted reading of -13%, the lowest since June 2020.
Shares of European drinks makers slumped on Tuesday after China said it would impose provisional anti-dumping tariffs on brandy imported from the European Union this week. According to a notice from the Ministry of Commerce, Chinese customs officials will collect security deposits from companies that sell brandy that originates from the EU. The deposit amount will be between 30.6% to 39% of the total value. Shares in Remy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard and Diageo were all hit, down 8.6%, 4.3% and 1.8%, respectively, at 1020 BST.
German industrial production increased more than expected in August, driven by a “significant” jump in the auto industry, according to official data published on Tuesday. Production was up 2.9% month on month, the federal statistics office Destatis said. Analysts had expected a 0.8% rise. “Currently, production in the automotive industry fluctuates considerably from month to month and this has an impact on the monthly development of production in industry as a whole,” Destatis said in a statement.
A key gauge of investor sentiment in the eurozone has improved for the first time in four months, as the region attempts to emerge from a prolonged period of stagnation, with confidence helped by stimulus measures in China. The Sentix investor confidence index rose to -13.8 in October, from -15.4 in September. The index was last in positive territory, at +0.3 in June, before three straight declines. While the current situation gauge sank to a four-month low of -23.3 from -22.5 the month before, the expectations indicators rose to -3.8 from -8.0.
Factory orders in Germany fell more sharply than expected in August, dropping by their steepest level in seven months, amid an ongoing industrial downturn in Europe's largest economy. New orders in manufacturing were down 5.8% during the month, following an upwardly revised 3.9% gain in July (original estimate: +2.9%), according to data released on Monday by the Deutsche Bundesbank. This was the first decline in three months and the steepest monthly decrease since January, when orders plunged by 10.9%.