Greggs backs full-year outlook but Q3 sales growth slows

In the 13 weeks to 28 September, total sales at the bakery chain rose 10.6% compared to 13.8% growth in the first half. Managed like-for-like sales were up 5% compared to the same period a year earlier, versus 7.4% growth in the first half.

Greggs said sales were supported by "menu development and further progress in extended trading hours and new digital channels".

The company has opened 86 net new shops in the year to date and is on track to open between 140 and 160 net new shops in 2024, including around 50 relocations.

"Greggs continues to extend its reach, bringing new shops closer to customers and establishing the supply chain capacity to support further growth," it said.

"With increased forward buying cover we now expect the overall level of cost inflation for 2024 to be towards the lower end of the 4-5% range previously communicated. At a time when consumers continue to face uncertainty Greggs offers exceptional value for money.

"Whilst acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty, the board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations. The board remains confident in the long-term growth opportunity for Greggs, and we are investing to support that growth."

At 0920 BST, the shares were down 3% at 3,030p.

Jefferies, which rates the stock at ‘buy’, said: "A solid update from Greggs with the marginally softer LFL trend being offset by an improved cost outlook and a stronger exit rate.

"While we note limited Q3 volume growth, we expect little change to consensus today, and retain our positive stance."