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11 Sep, 2014 09:28 19 Sep, 2014 16:31

Scottish independence referendum LIVE

1632: According to Spain´s El Pais Scottish PM Alex Salmond has indicated his intention to resign.

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1418: Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, who is in Edinburgh, was cited by Press Association as saying: "I see today as the beginning of a process, not the end, where we reaffirm what unites us in the United Kingdom but we move towards a phase of much greater decentralisation, devolution and autonomy for all the communities that make up the UK, and crucially that we enter into a new, exciting chapter of constitutional renewal where more power and more control is put into the hands of the people themselves.

"It’s really important that everyone who cares about Scotland, yes or no, unionist or nationalist, Conservative or Liberal Democrat, all come together to unite behind the thing that we can deliver together, which is more devolution or powers to Scotland within the UK."

1250: Ratings agency Fitch says Scottish referendum has no implications for UK´s long-term sovereign bond rating of AA+.

1023: Data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and EPFR Global, in a report entitled ´No for Europe´, shows that bond funds saw their largest weekly redemption of this year, of $3.8bn, in the week ending on 17 September, although equity funds witnessed $5.5bn of inflows. European equity funds, however, saw their largest weekly redemptions in more than three years ($4.6bn). Of this last amount $1bn came out of UK equity funds, before the Scottish referendum. Emerging market and high-yield bond funds also registered outflows.

1027: Jose Manuel Barroso, the outgoing president of the European commission, said he was pleased with the result of the referendum. "I welcome the decision of the Scottish people to maintain the unity of the United Kingdom. This outcome is good for the united, open and stronger Europe that the European commission stands for," he said. "The European commission welcomes the fact that during the debate over the past years, the Scottish government and the Scottish people have repeatedly reaffirmed their European commitment."

1005: The director of the Scottish Retail Consortium has described the referendum as the start of "a fresh chapter of devolution". “The people of Scotland have spoken. This vote signals the start of a fresh chapter of devolution, with greater power and more economic responsibility for Holyrood and the Scottish Government," David Lonsdale said in a statement. "The retail industry is the country’s largest private sector employer, serving a quality retail experience to millions of customers each day, and the SRC and our members look forward to engaging constructively and positively to ensure that the further powers to be devolved are implemented in a sensible and cost effective manner," he continued.
“More powers, however, shouldn’t be seen as an end in themselves. Scotland is a great place to do business, and our politicians will enhance our prospects even further by prioritising a competitive and attractive environment for retailers and others to invest.”

0955: Karel De Gucht, a senior European Union official, has said a 'yes' vote would have been "cataclysmic" for Europe. “If it had happened in Scotland, I think it would have been a political landslide on the scale of the break-up of the Soviet Union,”De Gucht told Belgium’s VRT radio. “It would have been cataclysmic for Europe. That was what I feared,” he continued. “A Europe driven by self-determination of peoples ... is ungovernable because you’d have dozens of entities but areas of policy for which you need unanimity or a very large majority.

0846: John Cridland, head of the British employers’ organisation, the CBI, said businesses would meet the result with a “collective sigh of relief”. “Business has always believed that the union is best for creating jobs, raising growth and improving living standards, and welcomes that the people of Scotland want to play an integral role in this internationally successful partnership,” Cridland said in a statement.

0840: The final results of the Scottish independence referendum are in: The 'no' movement has secured 55.3% of votes, with 44.7% of Scots voting for independence. Over 3.5m of people voted, as the participation rate of 84.5% topped the previous best of 83.9% recorded in the 1950 general election.

0829: Highland has voted 'no' in the final council declaration, with the pro-union movement securing 53% of the votes.

0806: The FTSE 100 is up 43 points (+0.6%) at 6,862 with shares in Scotland-based firms such as RBS, Lloyds, Standard Life, SSE and Aberdeen Asset Management rising strongly.

0802: Edinburgh-based Standard Life has said it "fully respect[s] the decision of the Scottish people". In a statement, the insurer said that further constitutional change is "very likely" following the referendum. "We will consider the implications of any changes for our customers and other stakeholders in our business to ensure their interests are represented and protected. As a large company based in Scotland, Standard Life is ready to contribute to this process."

0755: Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has announced it has shelved its contingency plan: “The announcement we made about moving our registered head office to England was part of a contingency plan to ensure certainty and stability for our customers, staff and shareholders should there be a ‘yes’ vote. That contingency plan is no longer required. Following the result it is business as usual for all our customers across the UK and RBS,” an RBS spokesman said.

0749: The FTSE 100 is expected to open over 1% higher on the back of the referendum's result. "The UK economy, most businesses and the markets will likely all heave a huge sigh of relief that the Scots have rejected independence – and by a slightly larger margin than the recent polls had suggested,” said Howard Archer, chief European & UK economist at IHS Economics.

0710: "The people of Scotland have spoken and it is a clear result", according to David Cameron. "Now it is time for our United Kingdom to come together and move forward," he said. He congratulated the 'yes' supporters over a "well-fought campaign".

0647: "Today is a momentous result for Scotland but also for the United kingdom as a whole," said Better Together leader Alastair Darling. However, he said that divisions - as seen by the strong support for independence - "need to be addressed".

0627: UK PM David Cameron to make a "significant statement" after 0700, according to a government spokesman. He is said to have been up all night watching the results, according to the BBC.

0625: "We shall go forward as one nation," declares first minister Alex Salmond.

0620: Alex Salmond is now speaking and has admitted defeat in his 'yes' campaign, but said that turnout in the referendum was a "triumph" for Scottish politics. He thanked the 1.6m voters that voted in favour of independence, in response to cheers from the crowd.

0613: Fife results are now in and with only one region still to declare their vote the outcome is official - Scotland has voted 'no' to independence with 55% in favour of the union and 45% against.

0559: Edinburgh and Argyll & Bute have both declared their results with both regions voting in favour of a 'no'. Edinburgh was the biggest of the remaining regions to declare with 61% voting 'no'. Argyll & Bute voted 59% in favour of a 'no'. 29 of the 32 authorities have declared with 1,737,464 voting 'no' and 1,398,450 voting 'yes'. That's a 55% vote for 'no' and 45% for 'yes'.

0553: Despite the official outcome not yet being declared and with over two hours still to go before the UK market opens, stock futures already are pointing to dramatic start with the FTSE 100 expected to open up 79 points at 6,898, according to Brenda Kelly from IG. "A relief rally is in the making," she said, as the market prices in a 'no' outcome.

0542: Prime Minister David Cameron has already accepted that the 'no' vote will come out on top.

0538: Six local authorities are still counting: Edinburgh, Fife, Aberdeenshire, Highland, Moray and Argyll & Bute. 22 of the 26 regions that have declared so far have voted in favour of a 'no'.

0529: "It looks like we will not get to the 'yes' vote we had hoped for", according to Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's deputy first minister.

0527: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's deputy first minister, has said in an interview with the BBC that "every single person of the 'yes' campaign will be deeply disappointed" if the 'no' vote wins. However, she said the the pro-independence campaign has come a lot closer than anyone would have assumed. "Scotland has changed forever," she said.

0514: The BBC is formally forecasting the outcome to show a 'no' vote with six of the 32 local authorities still yet to declare their results. They predict a margin of 55% to 45% for support of the union.

0512: 26 of the 32 local authorities have now declared their results with 1,397,077 voting 'no' and 1,176,952 voting 'yes'. That's 54% for 'no' and 46% for 'yes'.

0507: 25 of the 32 local authorities have now declared their results with 1,352,635 voting 'no' and 1,137,190 voting 'yes'. That's 54% for 'no' and 46% for 'yes'.

0500: Former Scottish socialist MSP Tommy Sheridan, who has been campaigning for a 'yes' vote', has said: "It is not looking good to be honest. I am feeling almost broken-hearted." In an interview with BBC Scotland, he said that the British establishment had "mobilised the big guns" to frighten the public into voting against independence.

0445: Good morning! With 17 out of the 32 local authorities already declared their results, the 'no' vote is in the lead with 56% versus 44% for 'yes'.

Friday 19 September 2014, 0445: Welcome to our live coverage of the Scottish referendum.

2233: YouGov's final prediction shows a 46% vote for the 'yes' campaign and 54% for no. http://y-g.co/1mjwlQz

2228: Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has Tweeted: "The people of Scotland have cast their votes. I sincerely hope that they remain a part of our family of nations. #indyref."

SNP Deputy Leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "So that's that. Polls have closed. What an amazing, emotional, inspirational day of democracy this has been. Now we wait. #indyref."

2216: Blair McDougall of the 'Better Together' campaign, hoping for a 'no' vote on independence, has told Sky News: "I think we have run a fantastic campaign". "I never make predictions, i never will. Let's just see what happens."

2200: Polls have closed and counting is now underway across Scotland's 32 local authorities.

At 2am Friday, the first councils expected to declare their results include Moray, East Lothian, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, the Orkney Islands, the Western Isles, Perth and Kinross.

At 2.30am Clackmannanshire votes wil be declared followed by results at 3am from Aberdeenshire, Angus, Dumfries and Galloway, Dundee, East Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling and West Dunbartonshire.

At 3.30am, Shetland, Midlothian, South Ayreshire, West Lothian, Argyll and East Dunbartonshire will announce their votes outcome. Half an hour later Fife and Highland will declare votes.

At 4.30am North Ayrshire will release its results.

Results are expected from Scottish Borders, Edinburgh and Glasgow at 5am. The final declaration will come from Aberdeen at 6am.

2130: With just half an hour left until the polls close, vote counters have taken their seats as illustrated in Dundee and Orkney.

2115: Scottish actor James McAvoy has spoken out on his thoughts about the referedum, telling The Wall Street Journal "I’ll go with my country no matter what way they vote, I just hope that my country follows its heart and its gut rather than listening to redundant political debate".

2100: John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist at DailyFX, said: " Until just a few weeks ago, the financial markets saw this as a non-event with polls suggesting the populace leaned heavily towards a ‘No’ vote. Since a YouGov poll unexpectedly tipped the ‘Yes’ camp the favor – even if by a margin of error – investors recognised they were too blasé on the risk.

"As Scots continue to go to the polls, the markets show a considerable sense of calm and confidence that Kingdom will not lose a member. The FTSE 100 is up on the day, Gilts are steady on the day and the Pound is up against most of its counterparts – including the US Dollar which recently received an upgrade rate forecast from the Fed. That said, this confidence is heavily lined with protection. Implied volatility levels have soared. As a reflection of the cost of hedging, overnight GBPUSD volatility levels have soared to 32 percent – two weeks ago it was 5 percent. Meanwhile, overnight risk-reversals show the cost of hedging a sudden downside Cable move is the highest on record. Investors are confident but justifiably nervous."

2020: Alex Salmond has told The Telegraph he expects 95% of Scotland will be "perfectly happy with the result, whatever it is".

2001: "The Scottish referendum is taking place at this moment, which can decide the future of Britain - but also of Europe," France’s President Hollande has said at a news conference.

1909: The counting officer predicts an overall turnout of 80% by the time polls close at 2100 GMT. It compares to the May 2014 European elections turnout of 29.6%.

1850: Former foreign secretary David Miliband says he is “passionately” hoping for a ‘No’ vote. Speaking on the sidelines at an event promoting his NGO in Washington, he told The Telegraph, he is on tenterhooks about the result. “I’ve had a lot of people coming up to me in the last week asking what on earth is going on – what are they thinking of?,” he said.“There is a very strong sense from abroad that the UK is massively stronger together, that people in this country are very comfortable with the idea that your are a Texan and an American and they know that Scotland has its own distinctive identity, but see it firmly as part of the UK.

1800: There are just four hours left until polling stations close and while pre-election polls have been too close to call, there have been many marching for independence across the streets of Scotland. In Edinburgh there is a "Wall of Hope" with messages such as "Vote Yes to rectify the Democratic deficit." Meanwhile, Tennis star Andy Murray has also tweeted: "Yes" vote, tweeting "Let's do this" after months of silence on his views."

1635: The FTSE 100 closed 38.4 points higher, not far from multi-year highs, on anticipation of a 'no' vote in Scotland, helped by optimism around recent central bank sentiment.

Jasper Lawler, analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: "The widespread assumption south of Hadrian’s Wall, at least in the City is that the Scots will vote 'no' to independence purely to avoid the difficulties of the separation. The risk is that north of the border the feeling is that independence and self-determination in itself is worth the trouble. There seems to be a good amount of complacency in markets on the referendum result which could feed into a more exaggerated response if there is a ‘yes’ vote and perhaps a more muted one should it be a 'no'."

He pointed out that with voting ending at 22:00, first regional outcomes starting be released around 02:00 and the last big results expected to be announced around four hours later, markets like foreign exchange "could well be making directional moves from 5-6am as some traders pre-empt the final confirmation".

1625: The result will formally be announced on Friday when the ballots from all 32 council areas are received by the chief counting officer. Results are likely to start coming through from around 01:00 GMT on 19 Sept. But Scotland's biggest cities, including Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen may not report results until after 04:00 GMT. A national result will be known "around breakfast time" on Friday, according to a media release prepared by the counting office. However, the result should be clear before every ballot paper has been counted as either side only needs 50 percent plus one vote of the total turnout to claim a victory.

Although some in the City predicted there could be delays:

1620: Don't expect the pound to rally after a yes vote, warned Ashraf Laidi, City Index’s chief global strategist. "Those expecting the pound to end up rallying in the event of a 'yes' on the basis of 'sell of the rumour-buy-the-fact' ought to think twice. A 'yes' vote would be a shock to say the least, and a resulting sterling plunge is inevitable," he said.

He added that any damage from a plunging sterling "would be allayed in the long run by a boost to England as a place of business, as Scottish banks and financial services firms seek refuge to the certainty of London. Scotland’s exit from the union could be seen to be relieving the UK Treasury of public finance burden to Scotland."

1616: Analysts at Berenberg have issued a note to clients warning that today's referendum, regardless of the outcome, will mean the UK will "never be the same again". Berenberg believes that following the result, the UK will either break apart completely or, at the very least, the union will weaken. Analysts continued to state that even in the event of a ‘no’ vote, another Scottish referendum is likely to come up again in the not so distant future. The key risks of the referendum, as outlined by Berenberg, concentrate mainly on uncertainty, particularly in relation to Britain’s future in the EU.

1550: Cable is rising 0.73% to 1.6411 in what appears to be a technical move by traders. On the one hand there is confidence of the 'no's coming out on top from the polls, but a victory by the 'yes' campaign is still too distinct a possibility. Hence, the potential for a major upset for markets and sharp moves in financial assets on Friday morning still exists. There are reports that traders are being asked to work extra hours tomorrow and of extra staff being added at City desks to help cope with the outcome of the referendum.

1525: A major government agency, Scottish Enterprise, accidently published a tweet in support of the ‘yes’ campaign earlier this morning. The tweet, which attracted significant public reaction, was swiftly deleted by the agency. Scottish Enterprise issued an apology soon after the tweet went live, as government agencies publishing partisan comments is a serious breech of the Civil Service Code. The faux pas reportedly occurred after a member of staff had confused the company account with their own personal account.

1430: There have been some rumours of exit polls but these are ill-founded. Polling analyst Mike Smithson pointed out: "Exit polls rely on being based on previous elections which is why GE2010 was spot on. The IndyRef is unique".

Keiran Pedley, associate director at pollster GfK NOP also tweeted:

1350: The latest poll on the Scottish independence suggests that the race is still too close to call, with the ‘no’ campaign leading the pro-independence movement by six points. An Ipsos MORI poll for the London Evening Standard put the pro-unionist group ahead 53% to 47%, a slightly wider gap when compared to the ICM and Opinium polls that were released on Monday and Tuesday. Notably, the poll revelealed that nearly 60% of pro-UK voters were motivated chiefly by fear of the consequences of independence rather than “hope” for the future. On the other hand, only 24% of voters said they were motivated by feelings of national identity.

1330: In cased you missed it, here are some more amusing views on the referendum from the UK comedian John Oliver on US show 'Last Week Tonight'.

1313: In a research note published today, broker Liberum explained to clients that in the event of Scotland voting in favour of independence then the worst affected sectors would be: oil, life insurance and banking, with utilities, defence and housebuilders all having a mixed effect. It further points out that Lamprell, Babcock and Brewin Dolphin were the hardest hit by the mini-scare of 8 September. The five largest affected companies who might be affected due to their actuarial pension deficits would be BAE, BT, Tesco, Sainsbury and G4S.

Lloyds and RBS could see a relief rally of between 3% and 5% should Scots vote no, the broker adds. Sterling can be expected to weaken materially under a yes scenario, with Imagination Technologies being the company most likely to benefit given its 60% exposure to the US dollar. More details in our full story on Liberum's note here.

1305: According to Twitter, trends the 'yes' voters are either winning or a stronger force on social media, as this live trends map from @Trendmap indicates.

1250: Every little bit helps to drum up the expected 97% turnout. A bagpiper leads voters to the polling booths in Craigmillar, Edinburgh. Picture from Edinburgh Evening News.

Edinburgh bagpiper

1234: The Footsie is making good gains having overcome last night´s wobble, attributed to the jitters surrounding Scotland´s independence vote. Helping stocks along is The Chinese central bank´s decision this morning to cut the country´s repurchase (repo) rate for loans to banks to 3.5%. The index is currently up by 3.06 points, in spite of today´s uncertainty relating to the referendum´s outcome.

1216: Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari predicted profit-taking will creep into the markets later in the session, especially if voting shows to be as neck-and-neck as the polls suggest. Erlam has predicted that the last hour of trading today will be "very interesting".

He added: "As it stands, despite what the polls say, people seem very confident that the Scots will vote 'no' when push comes to shove. The odds strongly favour a no vote and that probably says a lot more than any surveys would.”

Erlam also expressed concerns over the lack of guarantees offered by Alex Salmond regarding currency, the central bank and EU membership, adding that the lack of a “plan B” has adversely affected Scotland’s chances of getting independence in both the near and distant future.

1215: The estimated timings for Scotland’s referendum results can be found in this helpful infographic below. Announcements can be expected to begin at 2:00, with the final results to be posted around 6:00 on Friday morning.scottish independence infographic results timings

1213: Betfair’s exchange market remains unchanged this morning, with an implied 81% likelihood that voters will reject the referendum, the group said. The bets hedged in the final week of the campaign have accelerated towards a negative outcome; however, the results are still likely to be nail-bitingly close.

1132: 4.3 million Scottish voters have been registered to vote in today's referendum, amounting to a 97% turnout. Votes will be collected and counted after polls close at 10pm tonight. The results will be concluded following Aberdeen's announcement at 6am, whilst Edinburgh and Glasgow's results are scheduled to be released an hour prior.

scottish independence ballot paper

1120: Deutsche Bank has warned of the affect of possible Scottish independence on UK-focused utility companies due not only to currency uncertainty, but also sector-specific risks as subsidies for Scottish renewable generation are backed by English and Welsh customers.

"A 'yes' vote in today's Scottish independence referendum would add significantly to risks facing SSE, Infinis and to a lesser extent Iberdrola. While confirmation of an expected 'no' vote could trigger a relief bounce, energy policy risks may remain in a divided Scotland, with further devolution of powers and a May 2015 UK general election to come.

"We see little reason to own SSE (Hold). Infinis (Hold) looks cheaper in our view, though carries risk around the vote. Ibderdrola (Buy) remains one of our preferred stocks in the sector, given its globally diversified regulated earnings.

1100: A quick-update for the betting aficionados out there: Most bookmakers have shortened the odds of a pro-union vote, with a win for the ‘no’ campaign currently between 1/5 and 3/20, while odds on a pro-independence vote remain between 7/2 and 22/5.

1038: Adding detail on on sterling volatility, City Index’s chief market strategist Joshua Raymond notes that buyers have remerged for the pound this morning after the US dollar gained ground last night thanks to hawkish moves by the Federal Reserve. "Sterling buyers have re-emerged this morning on hopes of a victory for the no camp. The last 24 hours has seen a 100 pip range. Expect much more GBP volatility as exit polls start to come out throughout the day.”

City Index GBPUSD

1016: Volatility in GBPUSD rose to a high of 34.75% overnight, with markets jittery following news that the referendum outcome may be “too close to call”.

1005: If only men were voting, Scotland would choose independence by 54-46 per cent, points out YouGov. Among women, 'No' holds a clear 57-43 per cent lead.

1001: Scottish tennis star Andy Murray, who has so far remained tight-lipped on his leanings in the referendum, has finally come out and declared his support for the 'yes' campaign at the eleventh hour, via Twitter. If celebrities are your thing, Murray joins fellow independence supporters are fellow Scots Frankie Boyle, The Proclaimers, Alan Cumming, Sean Connery and Annie Lennox. The list of those who want Scotland to stay within the union include David Beckham, JK Rowling, David Bowie, Eddie Izzard, Alex Ferguson, Mike Myers and Emma Thompson. Fascintating.

0945: Société Générale's global head of forex strategy, Kit Juckes tweets: “Le Schadenfreude seems a thing in the French view of the Scottish referendum. Rooting for breakup despite implications for French economy."

0940: US comedian Stephen Colbert has done a piece on the referendum. Dubbing over the Mel Gibson's Braveheart speech: “They may take our lives, but they will never take our freedom to calculate pension benefits, rates of inflation or earnings. Whichever is higher.”


0922: The polls have been open for just over two hours but, according to Oddschecker, some bookmakers have already shortened the odds for a ‘no’ win.

0924: Ipsos Mori have released an infographic showing Scottish voting intention by level of deprivation. The poll shows a significant divide in opinion between affluent and deprived areas. Those from affluent areas are almost twice as likely to place a 'no' vote compared to those from poorer areas.indyref deprivation

0920: A pro-union vote remains the bookmakers’ favourite, with odds between 2/11 and 1/5, while an independent Scotland is priced at odds fluctuating between 7/2 and 10/3. Will the old cliché about the race being a marathon rather than a sprint prove to

0914: As of 09:14 the Footsie is drifting lower by 4 points to 6,777.

0900: And these are the front pages of the national press on this historic and fateful day for Britain. It´s a once in a life-time event, so please feel free to save it.

0830: The 'yes' camp released its final bullish statement via the Scotsman newspaper, with its rallying call stating that with "the most highly educated population in Europe", Scotland is a country so well-equipped "can, beyond any doubt, succeed as an independent nation". But there was a dose of reality too: "Nobody pretends that independence will be a land of milk and honey. We will make mistakes, but they will be ours to make and we will learn from them. We will face challenges, but with the full powers of independence we will be better equipped to meet them."

0800: YouGov have posted an interesting infographic showing how the votes have converged, with the 'yes' vote strengthening from less than 40% to overtake the 'no' vote before losing momentum again. The online pollster's final poll for The Sun/The Times last night was 52% for 'no' and 48% for 'yes'.
YouGov Scottish poll results convergence

0705: An extract from Gordon Brown's rousing speech last night in defence of the 'no' campaign. "This is not the fear of the unknown. This is now the risks of the known – an economic minefield where problems could implode at any time, an economic trapdoor down which we go, from which we might never escape."

0637: Scots have awoken on the day of the independence referendum with polling stations set to open at 07:00. A total 97% of eligible voters having registered to do so. The last polls released in the run-up to today give the No camp the slightest of leads. Yet the changing demographics, 16 and 17 year-olds will for the first time be allowed to vote, for example, means that predicting the outcome of the vote is nigh impossible. Scottish statehood looms on the horizon, as does the break-up of the 307-year old United Kingdom, one of the oldest political entities in Europe, with quite a few observers having warned that what some describe as a divisive process for Scotland may have been ill-considered.

Thursday 18 September 2014, 0630: Welcome to our live coverage of the Scottish referendum. With only one week left until Scots decide whether to remain part of the union or not, things are hotting north of the border.

1620: And that's all for the moment from us in this section. Goodnight and good luck.

1615: Scottish independence could encourage separatists worldwide, Capital Economics has said in a report.The think-tank adds that "it could tilt the balance of opinion in Britain towards leaving the European Union".

1557: "Our expectation is that UK borrowing costs will rise by around 20bp-30bp and sterling will fall further in the event of a ‘yes’ to independence," Unicredit Research says.

1556: Treasury sources have labelled Alex Salmond's claims that they deliberately leaked news about RBS preparing to relocate its headquarters a "desperate distraction tactic", saying the accusation was "absurd". Earlier today, Scotland's First Minister had hinted to an "inevitable investigation" into an alleged Treasury leak. "Market sensitive information, and it's a basic rule, can't be released prior to the market announcement at 7 o'clock this morning," Salmond said. "The RBS share price changed overnight. This is a matter of extraordinary gravity.

15:11 According to Eleanor Bradford, BBC Scotland Health Correspondent, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that Scotland would probably have to lower its NHS spending if it was to become independent. Even with the higher oil revenues forecasted by the Scottish government, Scotland would need to borrow more - or tax more - than the rest of the UK if it wanted to increase spending on the NHS.

1415: Amid reports that Scottish banks have drawn up contingency plans in the event of a win for the 'yes' campaign, some customers have taken to social media networks to vent their anger at the proposal.

1224: According to the Telegraph, a record 4.3m people have registered to vote in the Scottish referendum - the highest in Scottish electoral history.

1149: Following last night's poll from Survation bookies' are paying 1/4 for 'no' winning and 3/1 for 'yes', according to data from Oddschecker.

1145: Bookmakers suggest the 'no' vote remains the favourite in the race for Scottish independence, with heavy betting against the country breaking away from the United Kingdom. Betfair’s betting exchange, which has an impressive track record of calling political outcomes correctly, has remained firmly in favour of the 'no' vote, the company said, with the big money trades continuing to bet against a breakaway. While trade has been fuelled by significant bets from south of the border, including two London punters placing bets as high as £19,000 and £22,000 on the 'no' campaign. However, Scottish customers, who make up 20% of the overall participants in the market, have made a significant number of bets on 'yes' since the weekend, forcing brief contractions in the price.

1130: Oil production from the North Sea may be at risk due to the legal uncertainty which would follow in the wake of an independent Scotland. Any transition on North Sea oevrsight could take several years to resolve, the Financial Times' Lex column explains.

1126: TSB Banking Group said it has been considering the impact of Scottish Independence on its business. "It is likely that in the event of a 'yes' vote, TSB will establish additional legal entities in England. Any change in TSB’s legal structure would be taken in the interests of our customers and business," the lender said in a statement.

1121: Salmond: "The sense of purpose coursing through Scottish life is unmistakable. For the first time ever, Scots believe we can do this and we will do this." The First Minister said pensions will be secure in an independent Scotland. "Only a Yes vote delivers real opportunity."

1115: Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond is speaking to a press conference on the on the anniversary of the 1997 devolution referendum. "We're going to wake up to a lifetime of feeling confident in ourselves and our country. A 'yes' vote next Thursday is not the end of something but the beginning of something special,"he said. Salmond described the chance of creating an independent Scotland as "the opportunity of a lifetime".
"No one is better placed to govern Scotland than the people of Scotland. No one understands the aspirations of the people more," he said.

1047: Clydesdale Bank have announced its has contingency plans in place in case of a 'yes' majority next week. “We have strong roots in Scotland and we remain fully committed to our customers, staff and the communities in which we operate. Any change to the company’s legal structure would have no impact on the vast majority of the Bank’s staff. Clydesdale Bank would continue to serve its customers just as it has since 1838 and Glasgow will continue to be the Bank’s key operational centre,” said David Thorburn, the bank chief executive.

0922: John Lewis is the latest company to warn prices might go up in Scotland in case of independence. "From a business perspective there will be economic consequences to a 'yes' vote, not just in uncertainty but some of the turmoil we are hearing about. And it is also the case that it does cost more money to trade in parts of Scotland and therefore those hard costs, in the event of a yes vote, are more likely to be passed on," said Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the John Lewis Partnership.

0816: RBS and Lloyds might move to England, regardless of the outcome of next week's referendum. The banks would want to kick off the relocation process irrespective of the decision,” Chirantan Barua, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, told Bloomberg, saying the risk had become "irreversible".

0740: Lloyds revealed it has contingency plans in place in case of a win for the 'yes' campaign. "While the scale of potential change is currently unclear, we have contingency plans in place which include the establishment of new legal entities in England," the bank said in a statement released last night.

0736: A poll by Scottish newspaper Daily Record has given fresh hopes to the pro-union parties, saying 47.6% of those who took part in the survey plan to vote "no" on 18 September, with 42.4% voting in favour of independence. It is worth noting, however, that the survey polled only 1,000 people.

0700: Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the Scottish referendum. With only one week left until Scots decide whether to remain part of the union or not, things are hotting north of the border.

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