Broker tips: Cranswick, Centrica
Shares in Cranswick gained on Thursday as Investec reiterated its ‘buy’ rating and raised its target price to 2,086p from 2,065p.
Centrica
132.65p
17:15 09/01/25
Cranswick
4,730.00p
16:34 09/01/25
Food Producers & Processors
7,287.36
16:44 09/01/25
FTSE 100
8,319.69
16:49 09/01/25
FTSE 250
20,005.14
16:50 09/01/25
FTSE 350
4,563.23
16:44 09/01/25
FTSE All-Share
4,517.93
17:05 09/01/25
Gas, Water & Multiutilities
5,787.61
16:44 09/01/25
Cranswick reported trading in the third quarter was in line with the board's expectations, with total revenue in the three months to 31 December 5% ahead of the previous year. It was driven by strong volume growth of 11%, and underpinned by a good Christmas trading period, which the group had anticipated.
“The strong volume performance from Cranswick over the festive season was broadly based by product and customer,” according to Investec analyst Nicola Mallard.
“Whilst some of the growth reflects a contract regain, there is sufficient momentum in the wider business to see growth continue past the anniversary of the win.”
The analyst noted that UK pig prices were weaker, following the typical seasonal pattern in January.
Mallard said the direction of UK pig prices over the next few months could influence the full year outcome so Investec will revisit its numbers again at the full year pre-close statement.
Centrica shares slid on Thursday after Societe Generale downgraded the stock to ‘sell’ from ‘hold’.
The downgrade came as the bank updated its commodity price assumptions to reflect the current forward curves, resulting in a 19% cut to its 2016 adjusted basic earnings per share forecast to 14.3p.
“Our target price is reduced to 175p (previously 250p), which despite the 5.8% dividend yield, results in a prospective -10% total shareholder return – prompting us to downgrade the share.”
SocGen also cut its 2015 estimate to 17.1p from 18.1p despite Centrica’s srong nuclear and oil and gas output, due to the negative impact of the mild December weather on gas volumes.
The bank estimates the improvement to the balance sheet capacity from the dividend per share cut and the one notch rating downgrade has been eroded by lower commodity prices.
It now expects a 2016 payout of 84% and a retained cash flow credit metric of 29%, versus Moody’s target in the mid-20s.
The bank pointed out that its our forecasts do not incorporate any material negative impact from the CMA Energy Market Review due in March 2016.