Broker tips: Crest Nicholson, Reckitt Benckiser, Auto Trader
Redburn cut its stance on Crest Nicholson to 'neutral' from 'buy' on Thursday as part of a broader note on UK housebuilders.
It said that Crest, its only recommendation change, had a "torrid" 2018 operationally and there is no notable respite in sight, at least relative to the sector.
"The beginning of the group’s FY19 (from the end of October) coincided with the escalation of UK political tension, and starting order-book support was limited. Sales outside of Help to Buy's price cap (£600,000+) are set to stay at up to 25% of revenues this year and will likely remain tough.
"In addition, we have updated our incentive tracker, looking at the group’s website - this shows that 84% of the group’s sites are actively advertising incentives, up from 57% in August and 31% in March."
Redburn also said the jury is out on the quality of the group's recent land buying. "While we accept the price-point issue is a general top-down challenge, it does appear Crest has been faring less well than other similarly priced peers - notably Berkeley (outside London), Countryside and even Redrow," it said.
While it's not a problem in its own right, the balance sheet is the least strong in the sector when you consider the combination of average debt and land creditor usage, it argued.
"Our buy Crest has been value-based and, barring a major downturn, it is hard to argue the shares are expensive. Indeed, we see fundamental upside of 28%. But we are held back by the risks and at the very least find it hard to see why investors should opt for Crest over mid-cap peers Bellway and Redrow, both of which offer more upside with less risk."
Jefferies downgraded its stance on consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser to 'underperform' from 'hold' on Thursday, slashing the price target to 5,000p from 6,800p as it argued that the surprise retirement of chief executive Rakesh Kapoor last week "crystallises long-brewing anxieties".
"We see no quick fixes and a material risk of a margin re-set under a new CEO," it said. "With a materially below consensus view on FY19, and a weak cold and flu season in the US a potential negative catalyst near term, we move to underperform."
Jefferies pointed out that Kapoor's departure came on hot on the heels of the announcement in December that GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer are to pool their over-the-counter healthcare assets into a joint venture.
"We can’t help but think that the two events are connected. Was it the loss of what we think was Kapoor’s dream acquisition that is tipping him into retirement?" it said.
Reckitt walked away from the auction for Pfizer's OTC in March, when it announced that discussions to buy some elements of Pfizer's assets had ended.
Jefferies also highlighted the company’s "maxed out" margins, and downside risk to 2019 consensus. It said the weak cold and flu season in the US and Mucinex share loss were the immediate risks to numbers.
Auto Trader shares were down on Thursday following a cut to 'add' by analysts over at Peel Hunt.
Despite an improvement in new car sales since March, Peel Hunt pointed to a reversal in September due to supply issues related to the newly introduced Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure as something that could weigh on the advertiser's revenues.
However, the broker said that the data released so far had shown a "more resilient" used car market.
Peel Hunt voiced some concerns regarding Facebook and Amazon's entry into the automotive market but, with Auto Trader developing solutions for new markets, mainly digital marketing for new cars and B2B, the broker seemed confident that the impact from both companies would remain "limited" for now.
"We continue to believe the medium - term opportunity for Auto Trader is strong."
The analysts praised Auto Trader's ability to diversify its revenue streams in order to be less reliant on listings growth.
"Product has become the largest contributor to growth in ARPR, and we expect this to continue into 2019."
Peel Hunt also reiterated its 500p target price on the FTSE 100 resident.