Berenberg upgrades Spire Healthcare on new NHS data

The bank said the NHS data suggests Spire "materially outperformed" the rest of the independent sector in NHS inpatients between July and September. A new source of data it discovered, which reports elective inpatients and day cases, suggests that Spire’s inpatient volume growth is "head and shoulders" above the competition.

Its inpatient volume growth averaged more than 6% for the period versus rival BMI with a 10% drop, Nuffield with a 16% decline and Ramsay with a 2% slowdown. Berenberg said Spire’s volume growth appears to have accelerated over the past two months, although given that this weekly data can be volatile, and that inpatient/outpatient mix is clearly very important, it is cautious about interpreting this too firmly.

"It is positive, however, to note that Spire’s e-referral volume growth over this period (which influences revenues in January/February 2018) is materially stronger than its peers," it said.

The banked upped its 2017 EBITDA forecast from £148m to £151m, and from £151m to £162m for 2018, which is the upper end of the consensus range.

"We would feel more confident should our analysis of NHS data be reflected in the company’s H2 2017 results and guidance for 2018," it added.

At 1050 GMT, the shares were up 4.3% to 246.13p.