European airline stocks hit by oil prices, Credit Suisse downgrade

“We can see the close correlation between airlines and the oil price, with much of their recent outperformance resulting from the renewed weakness in the oil price,” said Credit Suisse, as it cut its stance on European airlines to ‘benchmark’ from ‘overweight’.

Beyond lower fuel costs, CS said the fall in the oil price has also benefitted airlines through the boost it has given to consumer incomes. It said this was particularly true for budget airlines, which are predominantly consumer plays, as opposed to the flag-carriers where up to half of revenue is corporate-related.

Still, the bank said that if oil prices were to stabilise or stage a modest recovery, one of the most significant tailwinds airlines have recently enjoyed would fade away. In addition, it argued that there are some signs that capital discipline is deteriorating: capex to sales has increased and historically a low oil price has been associated with an increase in competition, it said.

It said that while valuations are still attractive on 12-month forward P/E relatives and earnings momentum is positive, the latter is at levels where it has historically rolled over, with earnings revisions boosted by the falling oil price.

“On top of that, the sector is overbought,” it added.

Oil prices surged on Tuesday after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast big cuts to oil investments that are expected to slow production and reduce global crude supplies. In addition, the Energy Information Administration estimated that crude production in September was down 120,000 barrels a day from August and said output is likely to continue to decline through next August.

At 1030 BST, Air France-KLM shares were 4.8% lower at €5.82, Easyjet was 4.4% weaker at 1,683p, IAG shares were down 4.1% at 563.50p, Ryanair shares off 3% at €12.81, and Deutsche Lufthansa was 2.6% weaker at €13.08.