Investec sees risks to Debenham's 2018 dividend
Debenhams
1.83p
15:45 08/04/19
Analysts at Investec took an axe to their target price for Debenham's shares, predicting that a long slog lay ahead for the company against a "tough" industry backdrop, which might force it to reduce its payout.
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On the back of the firm's lowered guidance, the broker's Kate Calvert marked down her full-year 2017 estimate for profits before tax by 5% to £95.5m.
What's more, if current conditions continued then the outcome might be a bit lower still, she said.
She also lowered her fiscal year 2018 estimate, projecting that FX headwinds were set to strengthen. In turn, that meant the company's anticipated flat fiscal year dividend payout for 2018 might become unsustainable.
Changing hands at a calendar year 2018 price-to-earnings multiple of seven the shares' valuation was not "compelling enough", Calvert said.
All told, she decided to move to a 25% discount to the average 10-year forward P/E multiple, from 10%, which lowered her target price for the shares from 46.0p to 39.0p.
Calvert reiterated her 'sell' recommendation on the shares.
"We see no silver bullet for Debenhams’ structural pressures and it is hard to see any real profit progression in the next 3 years."
"It is hard to see any profit progression in the next 3 years. The risk to our recommendation could be corporate activity."