Jefferies trims target for Domino's Pizza but stays positive

The UK-based master franchise of the global takeaway chain reported on 6 August that full-year profit would be towards the lower end of the current range of market expectations after a slower start to the first half.

Market expectations at the time were for FY24 underlying EBITDA of between £144.3m and £149.2m, with a mean of £147.1m.

Jefferies said the new guidance implies a 2% cut to consensus estimates, and has cut its target price for the shares from 430p to 400p. Still, that new target price implies around 32% upside from current prices.

"Investors may wait for: 1) more evidence of increasing franchisee profitability translating into an acceleration in new store openings; and, 2) a sustained inflection around delivery growth," the broker said.

Nevertheless, the stock trades on a 5.1% free cash flow yield at 14 times full-year earnings, which Jefferies said is 30% below the historical average before Covid.