UBS trims Barclays's target price but keeps at 'buy'

Barclays's share price might be heading into rough waters, but the course set by its new management was the correct one, UBS said.

Due to the bank's improved capital position, as reported by the lender on 1 March, and new management in place, the Board's decision to accelerate the run-off of its non-core assets was "not illogical", analyst Jason Napier said in a research note sent to clients.

Furthermore, given the lender's then current valuation and the new management in place, Napier believed a positive re-rating in the stock was now more a question of when rather than if.

"It is for management to convince investors that the ride is worth taking," the analyst added.

Barclays's shares were trading at 0.5 times' the bank's tangible net asset value, while sporting a 1.9% dividend yield and changing hands at 9.2 times UBS estimates for the lender's adjusted profits in 2016.

Nevertheless, the accelerated timetable for the run-off and the higher non-core losses that would result meant the broker lowered its estimates for earnings per share in 2016 and 2017 by between 15% to 20%.

"Ultimately, we like the ring-fenced bank too much and are worried about the investment bank too little not to remain a Buyer, but we freely acknowledge that the stock is catalyst-free and headed into a difficult few months."

"We think the plan to sell the African business is the right one," he added

Napier left his 'buy' recommendation in place but cut his target price from 215p to 200p, due to his now lower EPS forecasts and lower peer multiples.