Commodities: Oil in intraday rally, base metal futures tumble

At 1523 BST, the Brent front month futures contract was up 4.74% or $2.22 to $49.03 per barrel, with WTI futures, up 5.63% or $2.43 to $45.63, also posted a recovery from the previous session’s decline as fresh data revealed the build up in US crude oil inventories slowed from last week to 3.4m barrels. However, Wednesday’s data was not confirmed by the API which reported a bigger than expected build up of 4.1m barrels overnight.

Barclays technical analyst Lynnden Branigan said, “We are bullish in the near term for Brent crude oil and would prefer to buy dips. Given the stretched daily momentum studies we expect buying interest in the $47.50 area to underpin a move higher in range.

“Our initial upside targets are towards $50.70 and then higher towards $54.36. A move above the $55.14 range highs would signal a stronger squeeze towards the 59.00 area before prices stabilise.”

Yet several issues continue to lurk around the oil markets including a rise in seasonal demand as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. While worries persist over China’s crude oil demand, the spectre of crude oil sales from US strategic petroleum reserves (as a condition for resolving the country’s budget related political stalemate) and additional barrels from Iran continue to weigh on supply-side discussions.

China’s demand and perceived oversupply concerns left base metal futures on the London Metal Exchange feeling the heat. Past the midway point of trading on the LME, three-month delivery contracts of primary aluminium (down 1.6%), copper (down 0.9%), lead (down 0.9%), nickel (down 1.0%), tin (down 0.6%) and zinc (down 0.7%) were all in negative territory.

However, gold markets saw modest gains as investors’ focus remained on the US Federal Reserve amid market expectation of a rate hike being postponed until the New Year. COMEX gold for December delivery was up 1.25% or $14.60 to $1,180.40 an ounce, while spot gold was up 1.15% or $13.45 at $1,180.33 an ounce.

Concurrently, COMEX silver was up 3.01% or 48 cents at $16.34 an ounce, while spot platinum registered a 2.31% or $22.85 gain to $1009.95 an ounce. “Gold and silver futures have jumped higher on expectations of a dovish Fed that could simultaneously increase demand for non-yielding assets and emerging markets, the biggest precious metal consumers,” said Jasper Lawler, analyst at CMC Markets.

Finally, agricultural commodities futures conveyed a mixed picture. CBOT corn (down 0.59%) and wheat (down 1.13%) contracts lost ground in early US trading. However, ICE cotton (up 0.26%), ICE cocoa (up 0.88%) and CME live cattle (up 2.13%) futures were in positive territory.