Thursday preview: Scots vote on independence from the UK

Polls have been too close to call ahead of the vote.

In the latest prediction, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power on Wednesday said it expects some of the biggest cities in Scotland will vote ‘no’ in the independence referendum on Thursday.

The bookmaker said poll results are less reliable in the Scottish referendum due to the record turnout expected and changes in demographics, meaning "no polling model can predict what’s going to happen".

A spokesperson for Paddy Power said: “The four big Scottish cities are showing how close this vote is going to be, with the odds predicting three of the four major cities in the region will be going down the ‘no’ route.”

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has warned of the impact a ‘yes’ vote would have on Scottish businesses including banks and major supermarkets.

Royal Bank of Scotland has said it would move its headquarters to London if Scotland left the UK.

Other significant events on Thursday’s calendar will be final results from Petra Diamonds and Kier Group and UK retail sales data.

Petra Diamonds is expected to report earnings per share of 16.3c, compared to 10.3c the previous year and net profit after tax of $81m, up from $48.3m in 2013. The company has already reported revenue of $472.6m from sales of 3.1m carats.

The group on Tuesday revealed it sold a rare 122.52-carat blue diamond found at its mine in South Africa for $27.6m, less than what some analysts had expected it to get for the gem.

“We expect the outlook to remain largely unchanged with full year 2015 guidance (3.2Mcts) and a continuation of the firmer diamond market that was experienced in the second half of 2014,” Numis said.

The broker predicts Kier’s results will reflect a rising level of activity in construction and the initial benefits of its May Gurney (MG) acquisition. Asset operations will likely show a flat performance, Numis added.

“In the current year we believe that both construction and services will remain the driving force (on rising orderbooks plus a larger proportion of MG cost synergies), and we should see the first signs of the 20 refocus, though in the asset areas the benefits of this is not expected before 2016.”

Following the earnings session, a report on UK retail sales is expected to show a 4.8% rise in August after a 3.4% increase the previous month.

In the Eurozone, the first European Central Bank’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) will be held. Under the easing policy scheme, banks will be able to borrow an amount equivalent to up to 7% of a specific part of their loans in two operations in September and December 2014.

President Mario Draghi introduced the operation in an attempt to address weak inflation.

Thursday 18 September
INTERIMS
Card Factory, French Connection Group, Hellenic Carriers Ltd., Premier Farnell, Safestyle UK , Summit Germany Limited
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Anglo American, Rexam
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
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Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)
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Merlin Entertainments , Northgate
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CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
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