Week ahead: Federal Reserve, US non-farm payrolls in the spotlight
Investors will have to navigate a week full of potential risks events over the next seven days, not the least the U.S. central bank's policy meeting on Wednesday and the April U.S. non-farm payrolls report two days later.
Rate-setters at the Federal Reserve are expected to stand pat, but the key question for market watchers will be whether they have thrown in the towel on interest rate cuts.
At last count, Fed funds futures were pointing to roughly 80% odds of a single 25 basis point interest rate cut by the end of 2024.
That compared to forecasts for as many as six cuts at the start of the year.
Potentially key to the outlook for rates, some economists were still anticipating an imminent slowdown in hiring and labour market strength, hence the potential importance of the next monthly jobs data.
The non-farm payrolls figures due out on Friday were expected to reveal a decline in the pace of hiring from 303,000 for March to 210,000 in April, as the weather reverted to seasonal norms.
Nevertheless, given the unexpected resilience shown by the jobs market over the past two years, investors were wary of sticking their necks out too far. In fact, a monthly pace of hiring near 200,000 would still be far greater than what was needed to bring inflation down to the Fed's target.
On home shores, consumer credit data for March were due out on Tuesday, as were figures for euro area consumer prices in April.
Survey results for UK factory sector activity and home prices would follow on Wednesday, whilst Friday would bring with it services sector survey numbers.
Preliminary euro area consumer price data for April would be forthcoming on Tuesday, alongside Chinese factory sector survey readings.
Monday 29 April
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
New Star Investment Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Services Sentiment (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Biome Technologies, Christie Group, Gresham House Energy Storage Fund, Gresham Technologies, Jadestone Energy, One Media IP Group, SpaceandPeople, SpaceandPeople
AGMS
Globaltrans Investment GDR (Reg S), GoldStone Resources Ltd, Ocado Group, Symphony International Holdings Ltd.
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
NATWEST GROUP, Quartix Technologies
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Banco Santander S.A.
Tuesday 30 April
INTERIMS
Essensys
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Chemring 7% Cumulative Preference Shares 1, Heavitree Brewery 11 1/2% Cum Prf , Latham (James) 8% Cumulative Preference 1
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
CT Private Equity Trust, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Employment Cost Index (US) (13:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (GER) (07:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (GER) (10:00)
House Price Index (US) (14:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
GMS
Amigo Holdings, Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
Avacta Group, Capital & Regional, Card Factory, Fadel Partners, Inc Com Stk Usd0.001 (Di) Regs Cat 3/144A, Kelso Group Holdings, Northcoders Group , RBG Holdings, Roadside Real Estate , Shield Therapeutics, Strip Tinning Holdings
ANNUAL REPORT
Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)
EGMS
Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)
AGMS
Anglo American, BBGI Global Infrastructure S.A. NPV (DI), CVC Income & Growth Limited NPV Euro, Elementis, Elementis, Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S), Minoan Group, Petro Matad Ltd., Rotork, The Pebble Group, Versarien
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Elementis, Howden Joinery Group, IDOX, Rotork
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Abrdn , European Assets Trust , Wynnstay Group
Q1
Banco Santander S.A., St James's Place
Wednesday 01 May
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
NWF Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Natwest Group 11% Cum Non-Red Prf Gbp1 , Natwest Group 5.5% Cum Non-Red Prf Gbp1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate (US) (19:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
GMS
Apax Global Alpha Limited
FINALS
HSS Hire Group , Maintel Holdings
AGMS
Alfa Financial Software Holdings , Alpha Group International, Apax Global Alpha Limited , Domino's Pizza Group, Flutter Entertainment (DI), Glanbia (CDI), Johnson Service Group, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Smith & Nephew, Spirent Communications, STV Group, Tritax Big Box Reit , Witan Inv Trust
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Haleon , Next
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dalata Hotel Group (CDI)
Thursday 02 May
INTERIMS
Smiths News
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
AB Dynamics, Carr's Group, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, Seneca Growth Capital Vct B, Smart (J) & Co.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
British American Tobacco
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Greencoat Renewables (CDI)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
GMS
Ultimate Products
FINALS
NAHL Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alfa Financial Software Holdings
EGMS
AIB Group (CDI)
AGMS
AIB Group (CDI), Aviva, Ecora Resources, Enwell Energy, F&C Investment Trust, Glenveagh Properties (CDI), Grafton Group Ut (CDI), Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI), Hostelworld Group , Howden Joinery Group, ITV, Kerry Group 'A' Shares (CDI), Melrose Industries, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Morgan Sindall Group, Personal Group Holdings, Reach, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Reckitt Benckiser Group, RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI), RIT Capital Partners, SIG, Ulster Bank Ireland Designated Activity Company 11.75% Sub Bds
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Lancashire Holdings Limited, RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI), Smurfit Kappa Group (CDI), TI Fluid Systems, TI Fluid Systems
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Banco Santander S.A., CLS Holdings, Nichols, Schroders
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
4Imprint Group, Ashtead Technology Holdings, Coats Group, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Elementis, FBD Holdings (CDI), Genuit Group, Global Opportunities Trust, Henry Boot, Hiscox Limited (DI), Inchcape, Investec Investment Trust 3 1/2% Cumulative Preference Stock, IWG , LLoyds Banking Group 9.25% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 9.75% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, Porvair, Relx plc, Robert Walters, Senior, Zotefoams
Q1
Shell , Standard Chartered
Friday 03 May
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
B.P. Marsh & Partners, Beazley, The European Smaller Companies Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B , I3 Energy , Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
FINALS
Trainline
AGMS
HSBC Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, More Acquisitions
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Anglo American, Glanbia (CDI), Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Pearson, SEGRO, Synectics