Week ahead: Jackson Hole conference, UK surveys in focus
Markets are likely to turn their attention back towards the US Federal Reserve in the coming week.
The US central bank will hold its annual week-long Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with chair Janet Yellen herself due to deliver a speech on 26 August entitled The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit, while the topic on debate at the wider conference was "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future".
Some economists believe that if the Fed is truly intent on tightening rates come September then Yellen will flag that possibility at the above venue.
Given markets are currently only pricing in a roughly 15% chance of tighter policy in September such a move would be likely to ruffle a few feathers among traders. Indeed, at the time of writing even a move in December was only more-or-less half-priced into Fed funds futures.
According to economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, "The market is overpricing a Sept hike, but may be under-pricing a December hike. The Fed miscommunication reinforced the USD sell-off. The market is far from the stretched long USD position of a year ago. If the Fed starts hiking again in December, investors will have a lot of catching up to do."
In terms of US data, towards the end of the week, on Thursday and Friday, investors would be asked to digest three first-tier indicators: durable goods orders, second quarter GDP and the results of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for August.
Back in the UK, the focus would be on the more timelier data on the state of the economy, as markets stay on guard for any sign of undue weakness.
Up and until the time of writing some survey results had transmitted a direr picture of the British economy than the hard data, so it remained to be seen which would gain the upper hand or if they might just simply converge somewhere in the middle.
First out of the gate in that respect would be the Confederation of British Industry's industrial trends survey on Tuesday, followed by the BBA's mortgage loan data the following day and the CBI's distributive trades survey on Thursday.
Meanwhile, and in the euro area, the key releases looked to be Tuesday's preliminary purchasing managers survey results for the bloc's main economies and the IFO business confidence index for Germany, on Friday.
Monday August 22
INTERIMS
Wireless Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
SQN Asset Finance Income Fund Limited C SHS NPV
AGMS
Puma Vct VII
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Tuesday August 23
INTERIMS
Cape, Eurocell , Hostelworld Group , Persimmon
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dewhurst
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Q2
Hostelworld Group
FINALS
Rank Group
AGMS
Northern Bear, Redt Energy
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blue Planet Investment Trust
Wednesday August 24
INTERIMS
Atlas Mara Limited (DI), Candover Investments, Carillion, Costain Group, Glencore , Gresham Computing, Headlam Group, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Paddy Power Betfair, Sportech, WPP, Xaar
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blue Capital Global Reinsurance Fund Ltd (DI)
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Tetragon Financial Group Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)
House Price Index (US) (14:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
AGMS
Collagen Solutions, Duet Real Estate Finance Ltd, Gable Holdings Inc., NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aquatic Foods Group
Thursday August 25
INTERIMS
Anglo Pacific Group, Cairn Homes , CRH, Henry Boot, IFG Group, OptiBiotix Health, Playtech, STV Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Polar Capital Global Financials Trust, Tritax Big Box Reit
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Apax Global Alpha Limited , Avanti Capital, BlackRock World Mining Trust, British Smaller Companies VCT 2, Devro, Equiniti Group , FDM Group (Holdings), Glanbia, Hammerson, Henderson Group, London Stock Exchange Group, Low & Bonar, LPA Group, Marshall Motor Holdings, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, North Midland Construction, Polypipe Group , Prudential, Robinson, Rotork, Taylor Wimpey
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Carnival, HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)
IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)
IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Q2
Anglo Pacific Group
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberforth Geared Income Trust
AGMS
Albion Enterprise VCT, Oryx International Growth Fund Ltd., The Fulham Shore
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hayward Tyler Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Bloomsbury Publishing, Carclo, Cohort, Dixons Carphone , Miton UK Microcap Trust, Park Group, Redcentric
Friday August 26
INTERIMS
Computacenter, Lavendon Group, Marshalls, Restaurant Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen UK Tracker Trust, Beazley, Entu (UK) , Jupiter Fund Management , Microgen, Nichols, Relx plc
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
GLI Alternative Finance , Primary Health Properties
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Manchester & London Investment Trust
AGMS
Bilby, Naspers Ltd. ADR, Yujin International Ltd. (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GB Group, Halfords Group, Latham (James), Northern Bear, Octopus Apollo VCT, UK Mail Group