German unemployment ticks higher in August
German unemployment ticked higher in August as expected, as Ukrainian refugees joined the country’s workforce, according to figures released on Wednesday by Destatis.
Unemployment edged up to 5.5% from 5.4% in July, in line with consensus estimates.
Meanwhile, joblessness rose by 28,000 in August, also in line with consensus expectations, following a 48,000 jump a month earlier.
Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "Joblessness in the Eurozone’s largest economy is now clearly rising, but we have to be careful ascribing this to the shock and uncertainty from the war in Ukraine, and the associated surge in energy costs.
"This shift in economic fortunes is probably partly responsible, but only at the margin. Rather, the increase in unemployment in recent months has been primarily driven by a supply-side boost as Ukrainian refugees have been incorporated into the labour market, in effect becoming eligible for unemployment claims. We can see this in the IAB survey data. The unemployment indicator - inversely correlated with joblessness - has plunged, while the employment indicator remains robust, though it too has deteriorated."
Vistesen added: "Looking ahead, we suspect that labour demand will stay relatively robust, though it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions until we see the extent of the hit to activity and sentiment as the weather cools and the rubber hits road in the energy market, without Russian gas supplies."