Jobless claims rise but labour market remains resilient

First-time jobless claims totalled 214,000 in the week to 19 January, up 25,000 from a revised 189,000 the week before, which was upped by 2,000. The consensus estimate was 200,000.

However, the four-week moving average declined 1,500 to 202,250.

Continuing claims, meaning the number of filings by those who have previously filed an initial claim, increased 27,000 to 1.833m.

Ryan Brandham, head of Global Capital Markets, North America at Validus Risk Management, said that while the headline reading of jobless claims was strong, "this deviation [from expectations] can be attributed to an anomaly in the series – the overarching trend remains strong." Brandham added: "The US job market remains resilient, and it would take a series of higher results to change this narrative."

Similarly, economist Nancy Vanden Houten from Oxford Economics said that with seasonal volatility now mostly behind us, large increases in claims are unlikely going forward. "We may see a modest rise in claims as labor market conditions ease further as growth slows in 2024. We don't expect a sharp rise in claims, however, as we look for job growth to slow, but remain positive," she said.