Meat consumption must be slashed by 2030 to reach CO2 emissions target
A scientific consensus has revealed that meat consumption must be considerably reduced by 2030 if CO2 emissions are to be limited to 420.0bn tonnes per year in order to limit global warming by that date.
Studies have found that at least 720.0bn tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere to limit global warming to 1·5°C by 2030 in order to have just a 66.0% probability of success.
In a letter signed by multiple scientists and sent to the Lancet Planetary Health journal, they said that aside from replacing vehicles and transport that generate emissions we also need to globally restore natural vegetation such as forests and reduce our consumption of meat and dairy products. Such measures are critical to reducing the land needed to keep livestock and reduce the CO2 emissions the animals emit.
Such a global transformation must begin immediately for it to be effective within the required timescale for reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
Currently, the meat and dairy industry accounts for 49% of the emissions budget for the 1.5ºC limit temperature rise by 2030, implying unrealistic expectations for other sectors to reduce their emissions.
Livestock had largely displaced natural carbon sinks, occupying much of the land that needed to be restored and without such land restoration, CO2 removal from the atmosphere would rely on methods that were currently unproven at scale, increasing the risk of temperatures rising high enough to tip various Earth ecosystems into unstable states.
That instability could result in the loss of coral reefs and major ice sheets, and increase the uncertainty around humanity's ability to maintain life-supporting ecosystems.
Since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report in 1990, the production of meat, milk, and eggs had jumped from 758.0m tonnes to 1247.0m tonnes in 2016-17 and was projected to increase further.
The letter called on governments to incorporate four measures into their revised commitments to meeting the Paris Agreement from 2020 onwards:
- First, declare a timeframe for peak livestock—ie, livestock production from each species would not continue to increase from this point forward.
- Second, within the livestock sector, identify the largest emissions sources or the largest land occupiers, or both, and set appropriate reduction targets for production. This process would be repeated sequentially, to set reduction targets for the next largest emitter or land occupier.
- Third, within a reconfiguration of the agriculture sector, apply a best available food strategy to diversify food production by replacing livestock with foods that simultaneously minimise environmental burdens and maximise public health benefits—mainly pulses (including beans, peas, and lentils), grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and seeds.
- Fourth, when grazing land is not required or is unsuitable for horticulture or arable production, adopt a natural climate solutions approach where possible, to repurpose land as a carbon sink by restoring native vegetation cover to its maximum carbon sequestration potential,2 with additional benefits to biodiversity.
The letter was signed by more than 50 leading experts, including Prof Pete Smith, at the University of Aberdeen, UK, a senior author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on land use and climate change, published in August.
Of the world’s mammals, 60%, by weight, were livestock, 36% were humans and only 4.0% were wild mammals, according to 2018 research by Prof Ron Milo, at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel, who also signed the letter.