Morgan Stanley cuts 2023-24 Brent crude oil price forecasts
Analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their price forecasts for Brent crude oil prices across 2023 and for 2024 on the back of higher-than-expected Russian exports.
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In a research note sent to clients, they projected that Brent oil would trade in a range between $90-100 per barrel over the back half of 2023, which was down from a prior estimate for a range of $100-110.
Looking out to 2024, Brent was seen trading at $95 per barrel, against $110 a barrel previously.
Key to their forecast revisions, Russian sales overseas of crude and oil products were now seen declining by 400,000 barrels a day in 2023.
That compared to a prior forecast for a roughly 1.0m b/d reduction.
However, global oil demand was now also pegged to grow more quickly, by 1.9m b/d instead of 1.4m b/d, on the back of China's reopening, increased demand from aviation and improved forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2023.