US pre-open: Strong gains expected as Brexit polls show swing in favour of Remain
US futures pointed to a sharply higher open on Wall Street as the most recent polls suggested voters in the UK were leaning towards a vote to remain in the European Union at Thursday’s referendum.
At 1110 BST, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 1.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were 1.2% firmer.
Meanwhile in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index and Germany’s DAX racked up gains of more than 3%, while France’s CAC 40 was 2.9% stronger.
At the same time, oil prices powered ahead, with West Texas Intermediate up 1.4% at $48.65 a barrel and Brent crude also up 1.4%, at $49.86.
A Survation poll in the Daily Mail revealed that support for the Remain campaign was in the lead, while two Yougov polls – one for ITV's Good Morning Britain and one for the Sunday Times – both showed Remain in front.
In addition, a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror revealed the percentage of people saying they’d be relieved if the UK stayed in the EU rose to 45% after the murder of MP Jox Cox, from 35% before.
Meanwhile, an opinion survey conducted for the Observer between Tuesday and Friday showed an even split but of the 10% undecided, 36% said they were leaning towards Remain.
With just a few days until the referendum takes place, CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said it was “important not to get Brexit tunnel vision”.
“Central banks still matter. A very dovish shift from the Federal Reserve’s James Bullard, who on Friday said the Fed may only raise rates once before 2018, has contributed to a drop in the US dollar, adding to sterling strength. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.”
In currency markets, the dollar slid against the pound, which surged to its highest level in two weeks on the referendum polls.
Monex Europe said: “Today’s improvement in risk appetite is weighing on the US dollar, which is down today versus most of the G10 currencies. This week’s trading will be dominated by developments in Europe, although on Wednesday the Federal Reserve’s chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, which could trigger significant USD volatility.”
On the corporate front, Walt Disney shares edged up 0.6% in pre-market trade after its Pixar Animation Studio set a box-office weekend record for animated film 'Finding Dory'.
Elsewhere, health insurers Anthem and Cigna were likely to be in focus following a Wall Street Journal report saying US antitrust regulators are concerned about their $48bn merger.
There are no major US data releases due on Monday.