Britain's Remain campaign for EU referendum in the lead, poll shows

The ORB opinion poll for The Telegraph showed support for Britain to stay in the EU has risen two percentage points to 53%. Those wanting to leave the EU has fallen three percentage points to 41% since an earlier OBR poll on 5 April, the newspaper reported.

Prime Minister David Cameron’s election strategist Lynton Crosby said the “In” campaign was starting to win over votes.

Crosby said while opponents of EU membership were more motivated to turn out to vote, the poll showed those joining the Remain camp was growing.

"The Remain campaign has also persuaded more voters of the case for staying in the EU," Crosby, who helped Cameron win the national election last May, said in a commentary for The Telegraph.

The poll comes a day after the Treasury published an analysis which showed the UK economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, leaving a potential £45bn hole in public finances, if Britons voted to leave the EU.

Finance minister George Osborne said this would be the equivalent of £4,300 per household and taxes would have to rise 8% to bridge the gap in tax receipts.

He said the poorest households would be hit hardest.

"They are the people whose incomes would go down, whose house prices would fall, whose job prospects would weaken, they are the people who always suffer when the country takes an economic wrong turn," he told the BBC.

Opponents described the analysis as "absurd" and observers were treated to the sight of Conservative MPs attacking the Treasury's record on economic forecasting.