SocGen outlines post-referendum trade ideas

In the event of a Brexit, SocGen expects that on 24 June and the following days, the FTSE 100 would lose around 15%, while FTSE 250, Euro Stoxx 50 and the Nikkei would lose 20% and the S&P 500 would drop 10%.

After a market correction, the FTSE would recoup most of its losses, the FTSE 250 would remain 20% lower, the Euro Stoxx 50 would recover from lows and the S&P 500 would move back to pre-Brexit levels.

If Britain decides to leave the European Union, SocGen recommends selling the Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 250 and Nikkei, hedged in GBP, during the initial market reaction. After a market correction, it recommends buying the FTSE 100 and S&P 500, hedged in USD.

“After the initial stage of market reaction, which might last a couple of weeks (hard to tell), we expect FX/equity correlations to normalise as well as active UK intervention to contain outflows. GBP would be durably lower, thereby pushing the FTSE 100 higher,” SocGen said.

In a Remain scenario, the bank recommends going long the FTSE 100, European banks and the Euro Stoxx 50. In terms of specific stocks, it would buy Lloyds, ING and ABN Amro.

The bank said the FTSE 100 was likely to move back to the 6,400 mark it hit in April straight after a Bremain vote, with a target of 6,700 by the end of the third quarter.

“Beyond the FTSE, a Bremain outcome should alleviate a great deal of uncertainty elsewhere in Europe too, especially for banks which have been strongly impacted recently by Brexit fears.”

As far as individual stocks are concerned, it highlighted names that would perform well in the event of each scenario.

In a Brexit, stocks that are highly sensitive to a weaker pound would do well. These include BAE Systems, Barclays, HSBC, SABMiller, Smiths Group, Burberry Group, Unilever, Reckitt Benckiser, WPP, British American Tobacco and Experian.

If the outcome is to remain in the EU, the bank suggested going long stocks that have recently suffered on Brexit fears such as Next, RBS, ITV, Great Portland Estates and Whitbread, and short stocks that have recently outperformed, such as Weir, Accenture, Pearson, Informa and Rolls-Royce.