'Casual dining' restaurants suffer but pubs bubble up, Coffer Peach finds

These findings from the Coffer Peach Business Trackers were the biggest one-month decrease in well over two years and showed the sector has founding it increasingly tough in recent months, with sales worsening from the 0.8% decline seen in April after a small rise in March and a flat February.

Casual dining chains suffered a 5.6% fall in like-for-like sales compared to last May, while pub groups actually saw a 1.0% increase driven mainly by drink-led outlets which were up 4.5%.

“It was definitely a tale of two markets last month,” said Peter Martin, vice president of CGA Peach, the consultancy that produces the tracker, in partnership with Coffer Group, RSM and UBS.

Total sales for the month were up 2.2% among the 31 companies surveyed in the report on 2015, reflecting the fact that these groups are still opening new sites, though at a slower rate than previously.

Martin added that the later school half-term break, which this year fell in June against May last year, appeared to have been a major factor – "demonstrating how important the family market still is to the sector”.

Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM, said: “Making long-term predictions on the back of short-term statistics is always a dangerous game. However, a 1.4% LFL decline in sales represents the biggest one-month decrease in well over two years and is clearly a worrying sign for operators and investors in the sector.

Newman said the company's conversations with operators are now shifting in focus "from estate growth and rollout to driving gross margins and controlling cost inflation with major concerns around rent reviews, the NLW and next year’s rating revaluation”.

Coffer's Mark Sheehan said the impact from declining consumer confidence was undeniable, worsened by the impending EU referendum next week.

"With each of the home nations represented in Euro 2016, excepting Scotland, we hope to see an upturn in next month’s data, but overall, restaurant operators are undeniably struggling while pub companies are experiencing strong like-for-like growth," he added.