Sunday newspaper round-up: Rate cut, City exodus, pensions, LSE, RBS and Lloyds

Britain's economy will be plunged into recession as a result of the decision to leave the EU, according to City economists who slashed their predictions for economic growth this weekend in the wake of last week’s shock Brexit vote. Forecasters cut estimates for growth in 2017 and 2018, with surveys indicating the mere threat of Brexit brought the recovery to its knees in the second quarter, meaning "a recession seems likely", said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Economics, in the Mail on Sunday.

Banks have already begun to take action to shift operations out of the UK, with the governor of France’s central bank warning on Saturday that Britain’s financial services groups were at risk of losing their right to operate across the EU. Investment banks have reacted immediately to Britain’s referendum result, with some of the City’s largest institutions approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate, the Financial Times reported.

The Mail on Sunday also focused on this story, saying that as the UK financial services industry will face restrictions on selling products to European customers after the Brexit vote it casts a shadow over thousands of jobs in the City of London. The head of France’s central bank warned yesterday that banks would lose so-called ‘passporting’ rights if the UK leaves the single market – meaning banks in London would not be able to offer financial products to customers in Europe.

A leading European official has warned that the City will indeed lose 'passporting' access to the single market unless the UK signs up for a deal with the EU which would force them to accept freedom of movement, reported the Sunday Telegraph. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, said that London would lose these rights if the UK does not make a pact with along the lines of the Norway settlement.

Britain’s European financial rivals have launched campaigns to lure Wall Street banks and other multinationals to their shores, as the Brexit vote sparks a threat to London’s position as the pre-eminent hub of global finance. Financial centres across the eurozone are stepping up their efforts to coax foreign lenders away from the City. Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin are all bidding to grab lucrative trading and advisory business, the Sunday Times said.

The bosses of some of the UK’s biggest companies, including Tesco, Next and the big banks, have rallied together to lay out a Brexit response plan that protects UK businesses and their access to the single market in the wake of the shock vote to leave the European Union, the Sunday Telegraph said. Their lengthy list of demands to put to David Cameron’s successor as prime minister as part of the UK's divorce proceedings from the EU include ensuring British banks retain crucial access to the single market; maintaining airlines’ right to fly freely across Europe; and reassurance about the status of European employees already working in the UK.

The business secretary has called an emergency summit this week to shore up the confidence of corporate leaders after Britain’s shock decision to leave the European Union. Sajid Javid, who campaigned to remain in the EU, wrote in the Sunday Times to call on foreign investors and FTSE chiefs to try to ease fears Britain will be mired in uncertainty as it negotiates its departure from the trade bloc.

Britain’s biggest peer-to-peer lenders are mulling how to profit from an expected pull-back in bank lending in the wake of the referendum, the Sunday Times said. The two biggest domestic lenders, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland, lost about a fifth of their value on Friday after the vote to leave the EU, partly reflecting fears that the two lenders will see their own funding costs rise, forcing them to ration loans, as they did in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

The London Stock Exchange and its would-be merger partners the Deutsche Borse in Germany are to call a special referendum committee to examine the effect of Brexit on the controversial deal. The £20bn merger was agreed in March and last week’s shock vote will now be examined by the committee, including three directors from each stock exchange, amid growing pressure for the agreement to be changed. The Mail on Sunday noted that Dr Michael Fuchs, vice chairman of Germany’s ruling CDU party, had said: "Things have changed and the Brexit vote has consequences. The merged company cannot be based in London."

The Brexit vote could hasten a looming crisis in the funding of final salary pension schemes, experts warned last night. A stampede for safe assets amid the market chaos on Friday placed even greater pressure on final salary plans. The slump in the returns on government bonds makes it more expensive for retirement funds to cover their long-term liabilities. - Sunday Times

The sale of billions of pounds of taxpayer-owned shares in bailed-out UK banks, Lloyds and RBS, has been shelved as a result of stock market turmoil spurred by the vote to leave the EU. Plans to start the sale of £2bn of retail shares in Lloyds over the next six months have been dropped owing to economic uncertainty following the referendum result, according to government advisers, dealing a blow to UK taxpayers. - Financial Times

Next chief executive Lord Wolfson, one of the FTSE 100’s leading Eurosceptics, has warned of dire consequences if Britain ‘pulls up the drawbridge’ and adopts protectionist trade policies following the vote to leave the EU. Wolfson said he still supported Brexit but that key issues had not been discussed during a campaign dominated by the immigration debate, the Mail on Sunday reported.

Fears over a Brexit-driven downturn in the UK economy have forced media and advertising companies to brace themselves for a further fall in revenues, the Financial Times said. With broadcasters like ITV and traditional publishers already struggling with the loss of advertising sales to social media and digital platforms, such as Facebook and Google, investors and analysts are now also concerned that a reduction in consumer confidence post-Brexit vote will spark a recession, dealing a new blow to the advertising and creative sector.

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has called an extraordinary meeting of its council to start drawing up its demands for subsidies from the post-Brexit Government. Britain’s farmers received £2.4bn last year in payments from the EU under the Common Agricultural Policy, and NFU President Meurig Raymond has already warned that many farms would fail without these handouts, the Mail on Sunday reported.

Although their publicly announced predictions were wildly off, bookmakers have hailed the EU referendum as ‘the biggest ever political betting event’ as punters staked millions on the outcome. Around £75m was wagered on the vote, the Mail on Sunday said, eclipsing the Scottish referendum and last year’s General Election, with around two-thirds of the money being staked on a Remain outcome, but with the Leave outcome getting the largest number of bets placed.

Apple paid £12.9m in UK corporation tax last year as the iPhone maker continued to book sales through its international headquarters in Ireland. The Sunday Telegraph noted that accounts for the year to September 26 showed that the tax bill for Apple’s two UK entities rose 9% last year from £11.8m from a year earlier.