Goldman Sachs forecasts England will reach World Cup final

Having been written off as also-rans before the tournament, England’s victory over Tunisia and the emphatic 6-1 defeat of Panama have set the team on course for the country's first final since winning the World Cup in 1966, Goldman's economists reckon.

The world’s most powerful investment bank’s updated model, which takes into account goal differences, predicts Belgium will top England’s group on goal difference. That will leave England to play Colombia in the first knock-out phase and avoid Germany, who will come second in their group.

England will beat Colombia and then defeat Mexico before squeezing past Spain in a semifinal to reach the final on 15 July, Goldman predicts.

“For England fans who might find themselves daring to dream, our updated model predictions might constitute a beacon of hope," the Goldman economists said in a report.

The prediction put Goldman at odds with bookmakers who see England's chances as much weaker. Paddy Power said the odds on England playing Brazil in the final were 30-1 but that getting there by beating Colombia, Mexico and Spain was a 125-1 bet.

A Paddy Power spokesman said: "We think it’s a long-shot, in short!"

Goldman said England were likely to lose if they played Brazil in the final – and that France still have the best chance of winning the tournament followed by Brazil, Belgium and England in that order. Paddy Power placed England as sixth-favourite after Spain, Brazil, France, Belgium and Germany.

Goldman’s model correctly predicted England’s victory over Panama and Belgium’s defeat of Tunisia though the margins – Belgium won 5-2 – were greater than expected. The model failed to call Colombia’s 3-0 thrashing of Poland and Mexico beating South Korea 2-1.

Goldman said Germany’s 2-1 defeat of Sweden was “in line with our expectations” though Germany, the World Cup holders, only secured the victory in the fifth minute of stoppage time after a performance pundits said was dire.

"As the tournament heats up, the winning margins are becoming wafer thin, especially for England," the Goldman economists said.