Tuesday newspaper share tips: OneSavings Bank and Wolseley
Business is booming for OneSavings Bank, which has just clocked up a £35m profit after selling a £250m securitisation of pre-crisis mortgages, writes the Financial Times' Lex column.
Aldermore Group
n/a
n/a
Banks
4,684.18
15:20 15/11/24
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (DI)
15,790.00p
15:19 15/11/24
Financial Services
16,492.70
15:20 15/11/24
FTSE 100
8,075.72
15:20 15/11/24
FTSE 250
20,561.39
15:20 15/11/24
FTSE 350
4,462.32
15:20 15/11/24
FTSE All-Share
4,420.44
15:20 15/11/24
Lloyds Banking Group
56.28p
15:20 15/11/24
OSB Group
377.80p
15:19 15/11/24
Shawbrook Group
339.50p
16:34 23/08/17
Support Services
10,890.79
15:20 15/11/24
The buy-to-let lender intended to use the dosh to originate more mortgages, and its loan books have swollen by more than a third each year since 2013.
And yet, noted the column, shares in OneSavings Bank have lagged Lloyds'. This was true also of other buy-to-let lenders Shawbrook and Aldermore.
Lex reckoned valuation could be the reason, observing that the stock trades at a twice-2017 book value, which was rather high for a European bank.
It also looked to a list of bearish points, among them increasing purchase taxes, Brexit and further cuts to tax relief of buy-to-let mortgages.
"Yet lending keeps growing," wrote the column. In April it was up 16% on the year to £18.5bn, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders' estimates.
But also Lex contended that these factors would help so-called professional landlords -- those with four properties or more -- who could absorb the higher costs and would want more services, such as setting up tax-efficient corporate structures.
Property consultancy thought that the proportion of UK homes rented out privately would rise four percentage points to 22% in the next five years.
"A share contraction in the property market would hit buy-to-let lenders hard," said Lex.
"But anyone worried about a housing crash should not own shares in a UK bank."
Meantime, The Telegraph's Questor column also dipped into the property-related theme, slapping a "Sell" opinion on the hsares on plumbing supplies business Wolseley.
It pointed to a 10% slump in the outfit's shares after a grey third-quarter trading update.
"There could be more pain to come as slowing growth at the FTSE 100-listed company leaves the shares exposed," contended the column.
Wolseley generated most of its revenue and profits in the UK, and warned that industrial markets -- contributing about 14% of the US' £8.3bn revenues -- experienced weaker demand.
"The company operates the Ferguson brand in the US, where orders have been lower due to a slump in activity from oil and gas-related customers," Questor said.
It also pointed the global commodity slowdown, which had put a damper on Wolseley's Canadian and Nordics businesses, and noted the tough trading in Wolseley's home UK market.
"Here (in the UK), like-for-like revenues were down 0.4%, during the third quarter as repairs and maintenance remain weak. The company will report on a review of UK operations in August."
Nevertheless, Wolseley did post 2.8% like-for-like revenue growth.
"The concern is that the US juggernaut is showing signs of slowing and that leaves the shares trading on 15-times forecast earnings looking exposed," Questor noted.
"The company reports annual results on September 27, with the market expecting revenue of £14.3bn and pre-tax profits of £860m, giving 246p in earnings per share."
The issue for investors was the building supplies business had a track record of being extremely cyclical.
"Looking back to the previous peak in 2006, the shares fell almost 90pc during the next two years as the slowdown hit. Sell."