Friday preview: UK health check via industrial, manufacturing and trade data

Following import and export data earlier in the day from trade giants China and Germany, the Office for National Statistics at 0930 BST will release industrial production, manufacturing production, construction output and trade statistics, while the Bank of England will publish consumer inflation expectations.

Industrial production and manufacturing both made negative contributions to GDP growth in the second quarter, despite support from strong global growth and the weak pound.

HSBC expects both to get off to a better start in the third quarter, with various survey data continuing to point to stronger outturns.

"If July disappoints as well, however, there will be further questions around the usefulness of the soft data at the moment," economists at the bank said.

While the consensus forecast is for the manufacturing element to improve with a 0.3% rise on the month from 0.0% June, industrial production is expected to soften to a 0.2% monthly rate from 0.5%.

Pantheon Macroeconomics is more optimistic, predicting production will have risen 0.6% month-to-month in July, with energy supply output felt to have risen by about 2.5% having been hit in June by unusually warm weather.

Industrial production and manufacturing both made negative contributions to GDP growth in Q2, with the latter falling 0.6% q-o-q, despite .

Meanwhile, with recent car production data point and CBI and Markit data also point to momentum in manufacturing, Pantheon pencilled in a 0.5% rise.

UK construction output has fallen in four of the past five months, including a 0.1% monthly drop in June.

Construction PMI fell by around three points a month ago, and with the housing market data broadly still looking soft, HSBC did not expect July to be much better, eyeing a fall of about half a percent, taking yearly growth to zero.

With the European Commission's construction confidence indicator down over the summer. Pantheon thinks the construction output will have continued to trend down in July, falling 0.5% month-to-month print.

The deterioration in the trade deficit to £4.6bn in June, from £2.5bn in May, was driven by a surge in imports of services and a decline in motor vehicle exports. Both likely were short-lived, so Pantheon expects the deficit to snap back to £3bn in July, in line with its 12-month average.

The consensus is looking to a slightly bigger deficit of £3.25bn.

Friday September 08

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

ANNUAL REPORT
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